Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations about India received’t have an effect on New Delhi’s ties with Washington, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar delivers a speech in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s place on the U.N. General Assembly, and the United States imposes visa restrictions on people in Bangladesh forward of elections.

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s feedback final week, Canada—a U.S. treaty ally—publicly accused a overseas authorities of involvement within the assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil, Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. It’s not clear why Trudeau went public when he did; his authorities might have concluded the allegations have been so critical that they wanted to be shared with the world, he might have sought to disgrace a authorities with which Canada has skilled tensions for months, or he might have needed to shore up his home recognition.

In most circumstances, such an allegation may imperil relations between the United States and the overseas authorities in query. But on this case, the overseas authorities is India, a detailed strategic associate of the United States. If Washington concludes that Ottawa’s allegations are true, it doubtless received’t harm U.S.-India relations—even supposing the United States itself reportedly provided intelligence to Canada that helped Ottawa conclude New Delhi might have been concerned.

Washington has a powerful curiosity in sustaining the partnership with New Delhi, even when the India-Canada disaster sparks some new tensions. The U.S. foreign-policy ecosystem is absolutely behind partnership with India, a sentiment that reaches all the way in which to the highest. U.S. President Joe Biden has deemed the connection one of many “most consequential” of the twenty first century. In current years, the 2 international locations have expanded cooperation in a variety of spheres, together with science and expertise, clear vitality, increased schooling, and commerce.

Shared concern about China is the largest motivating issue for the U.S. dedication to working with India. As lengthy as competitors with China stays a serious focus of U.S. overseas coverage, the United States will see India as a necessary counterweight. After all, India now has the world’s largest population, one of many largest armies, and some of the rapidly growing economies. New Delhi additionally has its personal long-standing competitors with Beijing.

The U.S.-India relationship has withstood shocks and challenges up to now decade: a diplomatic spat over the united statesdetention of an Indian consular official, a trade war, and India’s refusal to take a stand in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine final 12 months. Although none of those crises was as critical as what Canada accuses the Indian authorities of orchestrating, U.S.-India ties appear stronger than ever—they usually have momentum. U.S. officers converse privately about how new agreements and initiatives are rising so rapidly that it’s laborious to maintain up with all of them.

Another purpose why U.S.-India relations ought to escape comparatively unscathed is a elementary actuality: Interests, not morals, drive worldwide relations. Some shut U.S. companions, together with Saudi Arabia and Israel, have carried out extrajudicial killings overseas, which have provoked tensions with Washington with out dooming the relationships. Of course, not all alliances are foolproof. U.S. relations with NATO ally Turkey have declined lately as they’ve skilled strategic divergences. The two international locations additionally lack the kind of broad-based partnership that ensures goodwill.

Canada’s allegations have galvanized many throughout the nation’s practically 800,000-strong Sikh neighborhood. Over the weekend, dozens of individuals demonstrated outdoors of Indian diplomatic amenities in Canada, some waving the flag of Khalistan, the impartial state sought by Sikh separatists. If this anger brings out pro-Khalistan protesters within the United States, New Delhi may enhance stress on Washington. Twice this year, pro-Khalistan protesters tried to assault the Indian consulate in San Francisco, and the United States condemned each incidents.

However, the United States, like Canada, would cite the best to meeting and freedom of speech as causes for refraining from cracking down in opposition to Sikh protesters in the event that they specific nonviolent separatist sentiment. But Washington has even been reluctant to curb Sikh extremism: It hasn’t formally designated violent Sikh teams, whether or not based mostly within the United States or elsewhere, as terrorist organizations. Since the assassination of Nijjar, the FBI has reportedly warned Sikh activists within the United States of attainable dangers to their lives.

The India-Canada disaster may result in some uncomfortable conversations between Washington and New Delhi at an in any other case heat second for his or her relationship. But strategic imperatives and a deep partnership with robust assist from all sides imply that the chance of such tensions plunging the connection into disaster stays low.

Read extra: FP’s Howard W. French argues that the United States may lose credibility over its strategy to the India-China spat.

Jaishankar speaks at UNGA. India’s authorities had a powerful disincentive to convey consideration to Trudeau’s accusations at this 12 months’s U.N. General Assembly conferences, which wrapped up this week. New Delhi needed to make use of the occasion to showcase current achievements, reminiscent of its lunar touchdown and G-20 presidency—and never have them be eclipsed by chatter about allegations of a state-sponsored assassination.

It’s not shocking that Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar didn’t particularly point out the state of affairs throughout his speech on Tuesday. But he did reference Trudeau’s accusations not directly when he said that “political convenience” shouldn’t drive “responses to terrorism, extremism, and violence”—implying that Trudeau leveled his allegation with a purpose to acquire extra assist from influential Sikh voting constituencies.

It was a intelligent tactic: Jaishankar hid a refined slam at Canada—a transfer certain to be well-liked again dwelling in India—in a broader remark meant to depict New Delhi as an advocate for the worldwide south, one in all its core foreign-policy messages throughout its G-20 presidency.

U.S. imposes visa restrictions in Bangladesh. Last Friday, the U.S. State Department announced it could start imposing visa restrictions on unidentified “Bangladeshi individuals” who’re hampering free and truthful elections. The announcement, which comes three months after the State Department launched details a few new visa coverage, mentioned the sanctioned people embody members of the ruling celebration, political opposition, and legislation enforcement.

Bangladesh’s nationwide elections are scheduled for January. It seems that Washington believes the setting within the lead-up to the vote is just not encouraging, and it needed to ship a troublesome message that it’s critical about not eager to see a rigged election. The transfer comes lower than two years after the United States sanctioned a number of leaders of the Rapid Action Battalion, a robust paramilitary pressure in Bangladesh, on account of critical human rights issues.

Friday’s visa announcement will spark additional debate about why the Biden administration is taking such strong steps to advertise rights and democracy in Bangladesh at a second when it has mentioned comparatively little about threats to democracy in India and Pakistan. It seems that the White House is extra snug pushing the problem in Dhaka—even risking souring relations—than it’s in New Delhi or Islamabad.

Maldives prepares for election runoff. On Saturday, voters within the Maldives will return to the polls for a presidential election runoff after the primary spherical of voting on Sept. 9 failed to provide an outright winner. They will select between present President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu. The geopolitical features of the election have obtained loads of attention: Solih is considered as pro-India and Muizzu pro-China.

A record-low variety of voters turned out for the primary spherical, fueling commentary within the Maldives press in regards to the crucial of addressing disenchantment among the many citizens. There is sweet information, nevertheless: So far, worldwide election observers give the election course of excessive marks. An observer mission from the British Commonwealth international locations issued a statement saying it labored “transparently and efficiently”—an encouraging evaluation in a area the place a number of international locations have elections routinely marred by fraud allegations.

A brand new commerce and connectivity hall settlement involving India, international locations within the Middle East, and the European Union was announced on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in New Delhi this month. One might need anticipated that China would rail in opposition to the brand new deal, and Washington has suggested it as an effort to supply an alternative choice to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. But not less than initially, essentially the most vocal opponent of the venture is Turkey, which isn’t a celebration to the settlement.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that the hall received’t succeed with out Turkey. (For his half, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan cast doubt on the brand new venture’s capacity to prioritize “rationality and efficiency.”) But as a substitute of lobbying for Turkey to hitch, Erdogan has vowed to create an alternate hall linking Europe, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—an bold plan, given Iraq’s instability.

India’s key position within the connectivity hall is probably going not why Turkey opposes it. Its criticism appears to stem from unhappiness about being omitted and fears that the route will run via Greece, a longtime rival. Still, it’s important on this context that India-Turkey relations have just lately skilled some tensions—revolving round Turkey’s criticism of India’s insurance policies in Kashmir, Erdogan’s pan-Islamist views, and Turkey’s growing relations with Pakistan.

Journalist Deep Halder lambasts U.S. insurance policies in Bangladesh within the Print, arguing that Dhaka “isn’t willing to take dictations from Washington or become a willing puppet. A quickly-changing, multipolar world does not need Captain America,” he writes.

In the Express Tribune, former Pakistani official Sahibzada Riaz Noor criticizes the nation’s subsidy insurance policies. He writes that the “subsidy system in Pakistan, in absence of reliable data, seems vastly distorted in favour of the already endowed, undeserving.”