AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc stock (NYSE: AMC) fell more than 14% in just the last one week and has completely underperformed the S&P 500 which was up 2%. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, the stock has dropped 1% and 8%, respectively, thus having lagged the broader market on both the occasions. The drop in AMC stock was driven by Disney’s
DIS
announcement of further movie delays last week. Disney reshuffled the release dates for five Marvel films, due to which fans of movies from popular franchises such as Thor and Black Panther will need to wait several more months to see their favorite superheroes on the big screen again. The House of Mouse also said it would move its long-awaited Indiana Jones film back by nearly a year, to June 2023. Disney’s new release schedule is likely to dent AMC’s and other theater chains’ revenue in 2022 and 2023. That’s bad news for an industry that’s already dealing with the challenges presented by Covid-19.

Now, is AMC stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is an equal chance of a rise and fall in AMC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last eight years. See our analysis on AMC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about how AMC stock’s comparative analysis, see AMC Entertainment Holdings vs Ad Tech Stocks.

Twenty-One Day: AMC -7.9%, vs. S&P500 2.6%; Underperformed market

(28% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AMC stock decreased 7.9% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.6%
• A change of -7.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 28% likelihood event, which has occurred 539 times out of 1955 in the last 8 years
• Of these 539 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 272 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AMC -1.1%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Underperformed market

(46% likelihood event; 45% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AMC stock decreased 1.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.8%
• A change of -1.1% or more over ten trading days is a 46% likelihood event, which has occurred 907 times out of 1966 in the last 8 years
• Of these 907 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 409 occasions
• This points to a 45% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AMC -14%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 42% probability of rise over next five days)

• AMC stock decreased 14% over a five-day trading period ending 10/25/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 1.9%
• A change of -14% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 110 times out of 1955 in the last 8 years
• Of these 110 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 46 occasions
• This points to a 42% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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