Editor’s word (January twenty second 2024): This article was up to date after Ron DeSantis withdrew his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.

“REAGAN WAS SMILING,” wrote Norman Mailer in 1968 as he watched a future American president lose. The results of the primary spherical of the Republican National Convention was in, and Richard Nixon had overwhelmed his challengers, together with Ronald Reagan, to safe his celebration’s nomination. Perhaps, Mailer speculated, Reagan was “remembering Barry Goldwater’s renunciation of the nomination in 1960, and the profitable results which had ensued”. In 1960 Goldwater had acquired riotous applause; in 1964 he received the nomination.

The choice course of works in a different way right now—major elections, fairly than opaque rounds of voting at conventions, decide the winner. On January fifteenth Donald Trump trounced his nearest rivals within the Iowa caucuses, successful the help of greater than half of caucus-goers. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley trailed him on 21% and 19% respectively. On January twenty first Mr DeSantis introduced that he would drop out of the race. The fashionable governor proved to be an unnatural nationwide campaigner, and his pitch (Trump with out the chaos) didn’t persuade voters who nonetheless preferred the unique. That leaves Ms Haley, a former governor of South Carolina (and ambassador to the UN throughout Mr Trump’s first time period) as his solely rival for the Republican nomination. She is prone to lose, however historical past means that right now’s losers have an excellent likelihood of turning into tomorrow’s winners.

Most Americans battle to call their congressman, and even their senators. A presidential run provides candidates unparalleled nationwide publicity, which might repay in 4 or eight years. John McCain misplaced the Republican nomination to George W. Bush in 2000, then beat Mitt Romney in 2008. Mr Romney secured the spot 4 years later. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden misplaced to Barack Obama in 2008: Mrs Clinton received the nod in 2016. Mr Biden did in 2020, on his third attempt. In November 2023 Mr DeSantis took half in a bizarre debate in opposition to California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, one of many main candidates to signify the Democrats in 2028.

Some lengthy pictures could run with the intention of settling for second prize: the vice-presidential slot. In 2004 John Kerry picked John Edwards, the runner-up; Reagan equally tapped George H.W. Bush in 1980. And losers who discover their means onto a ticket could ultimately clinch the highest job. Mr Biden himself benefited from his two phrases as Mr Obama’s vice-president. The elder Bush succeeded Reagan as president. Lyndon Johnson stepped up from the vice-presidency after John Kennedy was killed in workplace. But Mr Trump, who appears to nurse grudges, could be much less inclined to run alongside a competitor. He insisted on January tenth that he already is aware of whom he’ll select, no matter major outcomes.

A runner-up can also hope to learn from much less possible eventualities. The 77-year-old Mr Trump would possibly take sick; the Supreme Court may boot him off the ballot. Ms Haley is gaining help amongst average Republicans, independents, and even Democrats who fear that Mr Biden will lose to Mr Trump. No Labels, a centrist group, could also be getting ready to launch a presidential challenge. Some observers assume she may turn into the group’s candidate. Whatever her plan, a powerful displaying on January twenty third in New Hampshire (the place non-Republicans can vote within the major) would assist.

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