Here is what we all know and have no idea about what seems to be the gravest leak of US secrets and techniques in years:

Are the paperwork actual?

US officers imagine a lot of the supplies are real. Some, nonetheless, seem to have been altered to point out inflated US estimates for Ukrainian battlefield casualties since Russia invaded in February 2022, in addition to understated numbers for Russian forces.

It is unclear which of the paperwork might need been salted with misinformation and in the event that they could possibly be a part of a Russian misinformation operation or a US scheme to mislead Moscow about Kyiv’s battle plans.

What sorts of paperwork are they?

The paperwork, that are marked “Secret” or “Top Secret,” embody delicate briefing slides on how the battle in Ukraine stood in February and March this 12 months. On Monday the Pentagon mentioned that the paperwork seem like just like the each day updates supplied to its senior leaders in addition to to different intelligence updates, although there seem like some inaccuracies.

Classification markings on the supplies embody NONFORN, which means they can’t be shared with overseas intelligence companies.

The exceptions are supplies additionally marked FVEY, or Five Eyes, referring to the spy companies of the English-speaking nations of Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand. Materials marked that approach would have been seen by hundreds of individuals with safety clearances.

But as a result of not all the paperwork are marked FVEY, US officers imagine whoever leaked them could possibly be American.

Some paperwork are moreover marked FISA, which means they have been collected below the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the legislation that governs the US monitoring of digital communications.

How have been the paperwork leaked?

US officers don’t but understand how the paperwork discovered their approach on-line.

Pictures of creased paperwork — suggesting that they may have been folded in order that they could possibly be hidden earlier than being faraway from the top-secret areas to which such supplies are confined and photographed — have been posted to social media websites.

Those platforms included Discord, an immediate messaging platform in style with players, the net messaging board 4Chan, the encrypted Telegram international messaging app, and Twitter.

Although the paperwork solely garnered widespread consideration in the previous few days, the open supply investigation web site Bellingcat mentioned it had discovered proof that the paperwork – or not less than a few of them – had appeared on social media way back to March and even January.

In an article in regards to the paperwork’ “improbable journey,” Bellingcat traced the earliest references to the leak to a now-defunct Discord server and cited three former customers as saying that numerous paperwork had been shared there.

What do the paperwork say?

The paperwork cowl a variety of matters of curiosity to US policymakers, together with:

📌 Ukraine: Details about Ukrainian air strikes, the nation’s air protection vulnerabilities, and even the scale of some Ukrainian navy models.

📌 Wagner group: Descriptions of quite a few outreach efforts by the Russian mercenary group, together with to Turkish “contacts,” Haitian authorities officers, and the organisation’s rising presence in Mali.

📌 Middle East: Updates associated to Iran’s nuclear actions in addition to details about how the United Arab Emirates is in talks with Russia to assist construct a upkeep middle for some weapons.

📌 China: Predictions about how China would reply to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, together with particulars about British plans within the Indo-Pacific area.

📌 North Korea: Details about missile checks by Pyongyang and an evaluation {that a} February parade possible oversold the ICBM menace to the United States.

📌 South America: Information about Brazilian officers’ plan to go to Moscow in April to debate a Ukraine mediation scheme.

📌 Africa: An evaluation that France is prone to wrestle to attain safety objectives in west and central Africa.