SALT LAKE CITY — Two weeks ago, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert announced an ambitious goal: to get the state’s seven-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases under 500, for the first time in months, by Aug. 1.

At the time, the average hovered at 585; it has since ballooned to over 600 before coming back below that mark on Thursday. With just days left to reach the governor’s goal, the number still seems difficult to achieve. But this week brought two consecutive days of sub-500 case counts followed by more sub-600 days. Utah Department of Health spokesman Tom Hudachko said the state may be able to achieve some days in the low 400s and make Herbert’s goal a reality.

“It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility,” Hudachko told KSL.com on Thursday, “given what we’ve experienced this week.”

In fact, having a case count of approximately 500 or less over the next three days would drop the seven-average below the governor’s goal — making it an achievable objective so long as cases continue to drop. But even one day closer to the 700 case-count mark, which Utah saw at the end of last week, would push Herbert’s goal out further.

If Utah doesn’t get there, however, the governor said there are tools still at his disposal — including a possible statewide mask mandate, or a mandate for businesses like the ones already imposed in Salt Lake, Summit and Grand counties. Hudachko said any changes will be left up to the governor, but the health department will be there with the data he needs to make that decision.

Ok friends, we need to have a discussion about how to avoid spreading Covid this holiday weekend. We had surges after Memorial Day and July 4th and we have to do better this time. But first some good news. Utah had the lowest transmission rate in the country this week! 1/ pic.twitter.com/bOAsdHBtcb

— Spencer Cox (@SpencerJCox) July 23, 2020

“We’re there to support, in terms of providing him with a look at what the data are,” he said. “But any sort of changes in the response, or anything like that, will definitely be decisions that he ultimately makes.”

Hudachko said in addition to the rolling seven-day average of cases, the health department is closely watching the seven-day average of positive lab tests. “We’ve actually seen that trend in a really good direction over the past week to week and a half,” Hudachko said.

The seven-day rate is currently at 9.4%, down almost two full percentage points from its zenith.

And rather than tie success to a particular number, Hudachko said, the health department is looking for the trend of daily COVID-19 cases to start plateauing and then begin to decline.

“That would be the indication to us that we’re starting to trend in the right direction,” he said. “If you look at our trend line over the past week or so, we’ve definitely started to see that; but we want to see that continue for a period of at least a couple of weeks, if not longer.”

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Graham Dudley