For years, Tim Cook has been bullish on India. Now, he is betting massive on the South Asian big as Apple shifts its focus away from China and expands its footprint in India.

Still, analysts informed CNBC the iPhone-maker’s dependency on China will stay for years to come back. 

There’s potential for India to “become the next China” for Apple manufacturing, nevertheless it might take so long as a decade earlier than it occurs, mentioned Martin Yang, senior analyst of rising applied sciences at Oppenheimer & Co. 

Apple is ready to open its second India retail retailer in Delhi Thursday, two days after opening its first in Mumbai.

The Cupertino-based tech big nonetheless has a robust presence in China as a result of its provide chain companions, and China’s infrastructure capabilities are nonetheless much better than what India can supply, Nitin Soni, senior director at Fitch Ratings informed CNBC. 

“It will take Apple years to diversify away from China,” Soni mentioned. “The country is still a very large pocket for Apple — not just in the assembly line, but the semiconductor ecosystem and testing as well.”

Apple’s efforts to move its assembly of products from China grew to become extra pressing within the final 5 years as U.S.-China commerce tensions intensified, and provide chain disruptions attributable to Beijing’s zero-Covid coverage unraveled. The iPhone maker needed to scale back production in China as a result of these restrictions, a transfer that hurt its bottom line.

It can be extremely unlikely that Apple will have the ability to fully eradicate its reliance on China, mentioned Navkendar Singh, an affiliate vice chairman with International Data Corporation (IDC) India.

“Given the cost scales, logistics, and sheer inertia of some of the suppliers in the ecosystem in China, it’s very unlikely that Apple can completely remove itself from China,” Singh highlighted. 

Nevertheless, Apple’s progress in India has solely simply begun and quite a few alternatives await in each manufacturing manufacturing and retail gross sales within the nation.

India is the second largest smartphone market worldwide for annual shipments and gross sales, accounting for nearly 12% of the worldwide market, in line with knowledge from IDC.

According to the market intelligence agency, Apple shipped 6.7 million iPhones in 2022 from India, a surge from 4.8 million gadgets in 2022. It stands on the sixth place after the U.S., China, Japan, U.Okay., and Germany for world iPhone shipments in 2022.

“The population growth and pure opportunity around India is the golden goose for Apple. It’s been a difficult market to ramp for Apple on the iPhone front over the years but now is clearly starting to find its stride,” Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, mentioned. 

The expertise big presently manufactures 5% to 7% of its iPhones in India, a leap from simply 1% in 2021 — and there is not any stopping there with additional plans within the works to extend the corporate’s prominence within the nation. 

“China and the US along with Europe remain the hearts and lungs of the Apple story with India set to become a top 5 market focus for Apple. High hopes India can be a major incremental growth driver for Cupertino in the years ahead,” Ives informed CNBC through e-mail. 

Although the Indian authorities mentioned in January that Apple is aiming to make 25% of all of its iPhones in India, Ives mentioned that is a “lofty” purpose and hitting 10% to fifteen% of manufacturing appears extra sensible in the long run. 

India will even proceed to play second fiddle to Vietnam within the manufacturing of extra refined merchandise such because the MacBooks, however smaller merchandise corresponding to Apple’s sensible watches and AirPods being manufactured in India quickly, Singh mentioned.

There is such a focus of the market within the city facilities, and Delhi and Mumbai “make up almost a quarter of the market for Apple [in India],” IDC’s Singh mentioned, including that extra bodily shops might open by the center of 2024. 

IDC knowledge confirmed Apple solely has a 5% market share in India since low-to-mid-tier priced gadgets proceed to be shoppers’ high selections.

However, the nation’s growing adoption in expertise and stronger spending energy from shoppers will generate increased iPhone gross sales, Fitch’s Soni mentioned. 

“We see that the middle class is becoming more affluent and moving towards the upper middle class, and there is an increasing trend of customers buying flagship smartphones,” Soni mentioned. “This is also helped by the fact that 4G is now easily available all over India.” 

But cheaper labor prices in India is not going to cut back the prices of Apple’s iPhones as prospects could be prepared to pay premium costs for Apple merchandise, Singh mentioned. 

Apple is not going to attain the “price point of the mass market,” he mentioned. “It remains a premium brand and they would love to keep that brand halo in place.”

Singh added that the corporate could as a substitute supply schemes or financial institution tie-ups to make merchandise extra inexpensive.

— CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal contributed to this report.