The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to retain power in Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand in the assembly elections scheduled to be held early next year, ABP C-Voter’s latest survey has predicted. According to the survey, Punjab is headed for a hung assembly with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) set to emerge as the single largest party in the northern state. The AAP is seen emerging as the main challenger or a close third party in Punjab and Goa as well as in Uttarakhand. The Congress may witness severe infighting across all the state units with Punjab and Manipur being the worst hit. The predictions are in line with the first round of the ABP-C Voter survey last month. 

According to the latest survey, the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP can get 41.3 per cent of vote share, while Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party can get 32 ​​per cent, the Bahujan Samaj Party can get 15 per cent, Congress 6 per cent and others can get 6 per cent in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. The BJP has been continuously maintaining its vote share of around 41 per cent in the state—in the last assembly elections in 2017, the ruling party garnered 41.4 per cent of the votes polled in the state. In terms of seats, the survey shows that the BJP is likely to get 241 to 249 seats and the share of the Samajwadi Party can be 130 to 138 seats. Mayawati’s BSP can be reduced to between 15 to 19 and Congress between 3 to 7 seats, according to the survey.

The ABP CVoter survey has predicted a hung assembly in Punjab with the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerging as the single largest party. The AAP can get a big advantage in the elections to the 117-member assembly in Punjab. The AAP is likely to get 36 per cent of the vote share, Congress 32 per cent, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 22 per cent, the BJP 4 per cent and others 6 per cent. In terms of seats, the AAP can get 49 to 55, Congress 30 to 47, Akali Dal 17 to 25, the BJP 0-1 and others 0-1 seats.

The BJP can once again make a comeback in the Uttarakhand elections next year. According to the survey, Congress may get 34 per cent, BJP 45 per cent, Aam Aadmi Party 15 per cent and others 6 per cent of the vote share. The Congress party is likely to get 21-25 seats, the BJP 42-46 seats, the Aam Aadmi Party 0-4 seats and others 0-2 seats in the hill state, the survey shows.

According to the survey, the BJP can once again form its government in Goa with the maximum number of seats in the 40-member assembly in the coastal state. According to the survey, the BJP can get 24 to 28 seats in Goa, the Congress can get only 1 to 5 seats, the Aam Aadmi Party 3 to 7 and others 4 to 8 seats. The BJP can get 38 per cent of the vote share, the Congress may get 18 per cent, AAP 23 per cent and others 21 per cent. The Congress emerged as the single largest party in the state in the last assembly elections, but it could not form the government in the state.

The survey also shows that the BJP can get 21 to 25 seats in Manipur. Apart from this, Congress may get 18 to 22 seats, the regional Naga People’s Front (NPF) 4 to 8 and others 1 to 5 seats. However, at least 31 seats will be required to form the government in the northeastern state. The BJP can get 36 per cent of the vote share in Manipur elections, while Congress can get 34 per cent, NPF 9 per cent and others 21 per cent.