Canada’s polling agency has released the “approach” it will adopt to conduct safe elections during the Covid-19 pandemic as it appears likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may trigger early polls in the near future to try and convert his Liberal Party’s minority government into one with a majority.

Elections Canada is addressing a potential scenario of such polls taking place in the autumn, as it looked “to a possible fall election.”

Trudeau will face a vote of confidence in the House of Commons by the end of this month and a defeat, if it happens, will necessitate snap polls. As he prepares to present a platform in Parliament that will be transformative in terms of social policies, there is speculation that he himself might prefer early elections, using the legislative promises as a manifesto.

Andrew McDougall, a political scientist with the University of Toronto – Scarborough, said it was “possible” that elections could occur in the fall, that is between late October and November, though there was a “greater chance” they will take place in spring, around March or April.

Trudeau returned to power just last October after federal elections, though short of a majority. McDougall said Trudeau could set the stage with the Throne Speech in September, equivalent of India’s Presidential address laying out the government’s agenda. He said, “He wants to go big and wants to introduce some major initiatives. That could be a strategy – he’s trying to reset the agenda.”

Elections Canada is well aware of the possibility of snap polls and has “changes and measures already in the works” including implementing physical distancing at polling stations and procuring masks and single-use pencils for marking ballots, increasing the polling period from one day to two and expanding the mail-in ballot process. “Given the current minority Government, an election could take place at any time,” it said in a statement.

Early elections could see Trudeau facing a fine balance between risk and reward. McDougall said he will benefit from the public perception of handling the coronavirus crisis efficiently while suffering from criticism over handing out a nearly billion dollar contract, since cancelled, to a charity with links to himself and his family. In addition, there may be little appetite among Canadians for early elections especially during a pandemic.

The Opposition could also ensure fresh elections ousting the Trudeau Government in the vote of confidence, but that could bring about its own challenges as, McDougall said, it may not want to be “blamed for bringing about political instability.”