OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada is planning for a “reasonable worst case scenario” in which new waves of the coronavirus would intermittently swamp the public health system, officials said on Friday.

Under the scenario, there would be a large peak later this year followed by a number of smaller peaks and valleys stretching to January 2022. Each of the peaks would exceed the health system’s capacity.

Several of Canada’s 10 provinces have reported higher numbers of COVID-19 infections as the economy restarts and restrictions on social gathering are relaxed.

“We are planning for a reasonable worst case scenario comprised of a large ‘Fall Peak’ followed by ongoing ‘Peak and Valleys’ in which resource demands intermittently exceed the … health system’s capacity to manage,” federal health officials said in a modeling forecast.

“Increases in infection rates are expected as we continue to support economic and social activities, even with appropriate controls in place.”

The cumulative death toll in Canada could be as high as 9,115 by Aug 23, up from the 9,015 at present, officials said.