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According to the researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is far from over and India might witness a huge surge in Covid-19 cases in coming months in absence of a corona vaccine or drugs. According to the study, India could be the worst-affected country in the world with 2.87 lakh cases every day by at the end of winter 2021.
The MIT study prepared by Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management adds that, the US will witness 95,400 cases per day, South Africa at 20,600, Iran at 17,000, Indonesia 13,200, UK with 4,200, Nigeria with 4,000, Turkey with 4,000, France at 3,300, and Germany at 3,000 cases.
The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination, according to the study.
The MIT researchers used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to predict the numbers. The SEIR is a standard mathematical model used by epidemiologists for analysis. The study looks into three factors: a. Current testing rates and response b. If testing increases 0.1 per cent on a day-to-day basis from July 1 c. if testing remains at current levels but contact rate or how many people are infected by one person, is estimated to be eight.
The study is based on a study of 84 countries that comprise 60 per cent of the world population.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the overall number of global COVID-19 cases has increased to more than 11.7 million, while the deaths stand at 543,000.
The MIT research paper has not been peer reviewed.
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