KOCHI: In the last eight days alone, 14,055 positive cases and 65 deaths have been reported in the state. Till May 4 the state had only 499 positive cases but on August 20 the number of positive cases in Kerala stood at 52,199. So far, 192 Covid deaths have been reported, including the Mahe native who died in Kannur in April.
The reasons for the exponential spike are many and much discussed but in hindsight the one overwhelming reason was a false sense of security fostered by the state health department. A technical paper issued by the health department as late as June reiterated that the state was not experiencing large outbreaks of local transmission and that there were only a few cases not linkable to transmission chains. The supposed absence of multiple unrelated clusters in several areas of the state lulled everyone into complacency.
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The health department’s mandarins and their political masters, basking in the worldwide glory of the state’s initial success in containing the pandemic’s spread, refused to even countenance the existence of multiple unrelated clusters.
Then Poonthura happened. The super-spreading event led to a chain reaction, leading to around eight large community clusters in the capital city alone. Over 1,500 confirmed cases of local transmission have been reported between July and August in coastal clusters in the state capital. Similar clusters were also reported from Kasaragod district.
“Now, 90% of the cases reported each day are through local spread. Population density is the major factor for this faster local spread. It is impossible to check the spread in a state like Kerala, said Dr N Sulphi, state vice-president of Indian Medical Association.
Kerala’s fatality rate lowest in India
The people who went fishing to neighbouring states and truck drivers triggered the initial local spread. When the state borders were opened, we received more people from red zones who too contributed to local spread,’’ Dr Sulphi said.
But even as the state’s caseload is increasing at a higher pace than the national average, Kerala’s fatality rate is the lowest in the country at 0.3. At present the state has only 157 Covid positive people admitted in ICUs and only 37 people on ventilators. The recovery rate of the state is 65% which is also impressive. “The good thing is that only 1% Covid patients are in ICUs. So, we may be able to accommodate double or more the number of active cases if the ICU admission rate remains similar,’’ said Dr N M Arun, internal medicine expert.
Experts point out that the state is likely to witness 5,000 cases a day by next month. “We have to go ahead with the present strategy in increasing testing, maintaining social distancing and making masks an integral part of our life – that’s the only remedy for containing the spread,’’ said Dr S S Lal, noted public health expert who was with WHO earlier.