The US Intelligence Community (IC) has given up on making meaningful progress on tracing the origin of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, unless China is more forthcoming with data and information, specially pertaining to the early cases that were detected in Wuhan.

The chances of getting more cooperation from China on this issue were slim. China continues to hinder the global investigation, resists sharing information, and blames other countries, US intelligence has concluded, because Beijing is uncertain where the investigation could lead to.

The Office of the Direction of National Intelligence (ODNI) released on Thursday a copy of a report of its investigation into the origin of the pandemic that it had given to President Joe Biden in August. ODNI oversees 18 agencies that comprise the Intelligence Community such as the CIA, FBI, NSA, DEA and the Defense Intelligence Agency.

The slim 17-page document bears out the key findings that were widely reported back in August: Sars-CoV-2 emerged and infected humans through a small exposure no later than November, 2019 and the first cluster of infections were reported in December; the virus was not developed as a biological weapon; it was also not genetically engineered; and the Chinese did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the outbreak.

But the community remains unclear on the key question of the origin of the epidemic, which was the main task assigned to them by President Biden in May.

“The IC judges will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of Covid-19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial natural contact with an animal or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling Sars-CoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before Covid-19 emerged,” they said in the report.

And answers to these questions rest on China, which has been far from cooperative despite persistent international pressure.

“The IC – and the global scientific community – lacks clinical samples or a complete understanding of epidemiological data from the earliest Covid-19 cases,” the report said, stressing the need for more on the early cases. “If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses.”

That will not be possible without China’s active cooperation, which, is needed the report said to “reach a conclusive assessment of the origin” of the epidemic. “Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information, and blame other countries, including the United States. These actions reflect, in part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.”

The report gives details of the discussion and disagreements within the intelligence community on the findings, without identifying the agencies.

Four of them and National Intelligence Council assesses with “low confidence” that initial infection was most likely caused by “natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus – a virus that probably would be more than 99% similar to Sars-CoV-2”.

One IC element assesses with “moderate confidence” that the first human infection “most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident”, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Analysts at three IC elements remain unconvinced about either hypothesis. And, these varying assessments largely stem from differences in “how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications and intelligence and scientific gaps”, the report added.

The IC went on to list some questions that they believe are crucial to getting to the origin. One, what additional information – to include timing, location, relevant animal exposures, occupational information, and clinical samples—is there on the earliest cases of Covid-19?

Two, how were early cases investigated? Three, what direct or indirect indicators of Covid-19 clusters is China aware of from early in the outbreak? Four, what insight can China provide on the search for the reservoir and potential intermediate species of Sars-CoV-2? Five, what insight can Beijing provide on the search for the identification of a progenitor virus? Six, what information does China have on wildlife and other animals at some specific markets that sell them? And, finally, seven, what information, data and samples does China have on wildlife present in the other markets, wildlife rescue centres, and/or farms in Wuhan.