The nervousness of the Union authorities over the farmers’ agitation from Punjab is palpable, because it exerts stress on X (previously, Twitter) to take down accounts and posts related to the farmers’ protest. These accounts belong to farmers’ unions, activists, reporters, and even the Shiromani Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee.

The Elon Musk-owned web site has claimed that though it ‘disagreed with these actions’, it needed to comply after receiving ‘executive orders’ from the Narendra Modi authorities. Failure to take action would have made the corporate ‘subject to penalties, including imprisonment’.

Earlier on February 22 morning, government agencies also raided the premises homes of former Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satyapal Malik, who has been an outspoken advocate for the agitating farmers. He has described himself as a “farmer’s son”. It is unsure whether or not the sudden raids on Malik have one thing to do with the on-going farmers’ agitation, however the timing suggests it’s.

Two organisations of Punjab farmers have been stopped at two border factors of Punjab and Haryana at Shambhu and Khanauri. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (Apolitical) led by Jagjeet Singh Dallewal and Kisan Mazdoor Morcha of Sarwan Singh Pandher have been coming to Delhi. After the dying of 21-year-old younger protestor Shubhkaran Singh the agitation might take a brand new flip.

Up to now, two main farmers’ organisations that had not but joined the on-going agitation — the Samyukt Kisan Morcha, representing 32 farmers’ unions in Punjab and the Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ugrahan) group — have been below stress to hitch after Singh succumbed to a bullet damage though the Haryana Police claims it has solely fired rubber bullets. They had led the sooner agitation of farmers in November 2020-December 2021 forcing the federal government to repeal the three controversial farm laws. Now the 2 have decided to join the agitation no less than symbolically by declaring a Black Day on February 23 and saying a Mahapanchayat for bigger session on March 14.

The Union authorities is nervous as a result of the farmers are the one social group that has dared to take it on. Its ministers had maligned the protestors in 2021 as separatists (Khalistanis) and even as traders (arhtiyas) and middlemen fairly than farmers. Yet Modi needed to bow to their collective energy in 2021.

The Punjab farmers are courageous, hardy, and affected person, and have additionally proven that they’re fearless. If the farmers’ agitation for minimal help value (MSP) for 23 crops continues, it may have critical penalties for the re-election prospects of Modi’s authorities.

Political bean-counters might declare that the agitation is proscribed to Punjab, a state that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already written off electorally. The occasion has purchased itself insurance coverage by allying with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Jayant Choudhary within the Jat farming belt of Western Uttar Pradesh. It has additionally awarded the best nationwide honour, Bharat Ratna, to Jat chief and former Prime Minister, late Chaudhary Charan Singh. The Jat belt of Rajasthan (together with Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, and Hanumangarh) nonetheless seems ‘safe’ because the final meeting election didn’t point out any particular influence of the sooner farmers’ agitation.

That solely leaves the farmers of Haryana. The Jat farmers there aren’t with the BJP in any case. The occasion has positioned itself because the rallying level for primarily non-Jat voters for the final 10 years (therefore a Punjabi Khatri, Manohar Lal Khattar grew to become Chief Minister). Nevertheless, the BJP could be nervous in regards to the attainable influence of the agitation on voters if the farmers’ protests delay.

However, such political book-keeping typically misses the wooden for the timber. Pointers to the massive image growing from the farmers’ agitation are already rising. It has disrupted the Ram temple narrative of the BJP as farmers’ points take over mind-space, particularly in North India, the place the temple inauguration was anticipated to present the BJP an unprecedented lead over the Opposition.

Should the principle SKM be a part of the agitation in full pressure, it won’t stay confined solely to the farm sector. The SKM has strong links with banking and other trade unions that are smarting below the federal government’s insurance policies of privatisation and the four unpopular labour codes passed by Parliament, although the rules have not yet been framed and notified.

The final time nobody, not even his Cabinet ministers, had thought that Modi could be compelled to do a U-turn on the three farm legal guidelines until even sooner or later earlier than they have been retracted. The longer the agitation lasts, the extra unpredictable the scenario may grow to be.

Even although the farmers haven’t but come onto the highways, on February 20, the Punjab and Haryana High Court ordered that based on the Motor Vehicle Act, tractors could not ply on highways. Yet the court docket stated nothing about highways being spiked, razor-wired and barricaded by the government. It went on to direct the Punjab authorities, “You should ensure that people should not collect in large numbers…they have right to protest but it is subject to reasonable restrictions.” The pre-emptive pronouncements of the judiciary in response to 2 PILs by non-public residents, goal to stop the farmers from travelling to Delhi with their tractor trollies, which double as caravans.

The farmers have additionally created an existential dilemma for the Aam Adami Party (AAP) authorities of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann in Punjab. The two agitating unions have requested Mann to register an FIR for homicide towards those that shot Shubhkaran Singh within the head. If Mann agrees to file an FIR for homicide, then it should go towards the BJP authorities of Haryana; if he doesn’t it should grow to be unimaginable for him to step into the agricultural areas of Punjab. With the Centre asking him to maintain law and order in the state, the offended farmers might create a scenario that would result in the dismissal of his authorities by the Centre.

Up to now AAP has been enjoying each side — however its balancing act has grow to be more and more troublesome.

Should the opposite farmers’ organisations be a part of the agitation past solely symbolic help, the BJP’s electoral calculations, no less than in North India might go awry.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the writer’s personal. They don’t essentially replicate the views of DH.