Dozens of studies have also clarified that Covid-19 spreads primarily through respiratory droplets, a point of confusion in March and April. ECMC staff did not initially wear masks across the board, Ludlow said, a measure they now know slashes transmission.

Thirty minutes north, at Niagara Falls Memorial, “anxiety was very high among staff members” who didn’t initially understand how Covid-19 spread, said Bajwa, the hospital’s chief of the infectious diseases division.

“We were sort of on the learning curve for the first round, both in terms of treatment and public health measures,” said UB’s Russo. “We now know how to handle an influx of cases … so even if there is a bump, we’re better prepared than we were before.”

But there remain significant challenges, particularly around Covid-19 tests. In order to stop a “ripple” from becoming a “wave,” to use disease modeler Peter Winkelstein’s terms, Covid-19 patients must be identified and isolated within two to three days of getting tested, before they can spread the virus to other people.

Some local labs, however, continue to see lags as long as two to three weeks, said Burstein, Erie County’s health commissioner. A surge of cases in the south has diverted reagents and other test materials, causing sporadic local shortages. Jericho Road, for instance, has only enough supplies to run 200 tests on its new equipment; Catholic Health, a far larger player, has found it difficult to come by nasal swabs and pipettes.