The examine additionally discovered that monsoon patterns in India have been fast-shifting and erratic up to now decade. This has been primarily pushed by the accelerating rate of climate change.

Here are 5 key takeaways from the evaluation.

But first, a have a look at notable forms of monsoon in India

There are two notable forms of monsoon in India. First is the southwest monsoon, which happens from June to September. It hits Kerala on the southwestern coast round June, after which proceeds throughout the nation. The southwest monsoon is the first monsoon affecting India — it not solely brings respite from the warmth but additionally contributes to the nation’s ecosystem and financial system, particularly the rising of kharif crops.

The second kind is the northeast monsoon, often known as the retreating monsoon, which happens from October to December and impacts peninsular India. It isn’t as intense because the southwest monsoon however is essential for the expansion of rabi crops.

THE FINDINGS

1. Rainfall will increase in a few of the historically drier areas and reduces in a few of the excessive monsoon rainfall areas

The examine discovered a notable enhance in rainfall within the tehsils of historically drier areas, like Rajasthan, Gujarat, the Konkan area, central Maharashtra, and elements of Tamil Nadu. In the previous decade, these areas witnessed a bounce of greater than 30% within the southwest monsoon rainfall when in comparison with the baseline of 1981–2011.

Meanwhile, historically excessive monsoon rainfall areas equivalent to Assam and Meghalaya noticed a discount in rainfall. The examine mentioned tehsils equivalent to Pachim Nalbari Circle, Boitamari Circle, and Barnagar Circle of Assam amongst others obtained 30% much less rainfall in comparison with the Long Period Average (LPA).

2. Regions with heightened rainfall expertise extra frequent heavy rainfall occasions

As talked about earlier than, southwest monsoon rainfall elevated in 55% of India’s tehsils. The spike, nonetheless, has come from short-duration, heavy rainfall, which regularly ends in flash floods, in line with the examine. Moreover, almost 64% of tehsils skilled a rise within the frequency of heavy rainfall days by 1-15 days per yr within the final 10 years.

Although the examine doesn’t reveal vital developments within the depth of moist rainfall extremes, the proportion of whole seasonal rainfall attributed to moist extremes is on the rise in India through the southwest monsoon.

“This trend is of particular concern as it is related to the distribution of rainfall within a season. This could be one of the reasons behind the recent occurrences of flash floods, such as in Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh (in 2023), and Bangalore (in 2022),” the examine added.

3. Changes in monsoon patterns can have an effect on agriculture output and ecosystems

The evaluation discovered that the southwest monsoon rainfall has decreased solely in 11% of tehsils up to now decade. The worrying commentary, nonetheless, is {that a} vital variety of these tehsils are positioned within the Indo-Gangetic plain, northeast India, and the higher Himalayan area, essential for India’s agricultural output. Here agricultural actions within the kharif season rely closely on southwest monsoon rainfall. A lower in rainfall can severely hamper the output. Not solely this, these areas encompass fragile ecosystems, notably weak to excessive local weather occasions like floods and droughts.

4. Rainfall will not be distributed evenly all through the seasons and months

Most of the tehsils with a decreased southwest monsoon rainfall witnessed a decline in rainfall through the preliminary monsoon months of June and July, that are essential for sowing kharif crops.

On the opposite hand, 48% of tehsils in India noticed a rise in October rainfall by greater than 10%, presumably as a result of delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the subcontinent. This can influence the sowing of rabi crops throughout this time, in line with the examine.

5. Northeast monsoon rainfall additionally elevated in some areas

In the previous 10 years, the retreating monsoon rainfall spiked by greater than 10% in roughly 80% of tehsils in Tamil Nadu, 44% in Telangana, and 39% in Andhra Pradesh. Odisha, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Goa are additionally seeing a rise in rainfall throughout this era.