Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seen right here in September, is dealing with a united opposition in Sunday’s election that threatens his grip on energy.

Andrej Isakovic/AFP through Getty Images

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Andrej Isakovic/AFP through Getty Images

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seen right here in September, is dealing with a united opposition in Sunday’s election that threatens his grip on energy.

Andrej Isakovic/AFP through Getty Images

When Turkish residents head to the polls on Sunday, they are going to vote in probably the most pivotal elections of their nation’s 100-year historical past. That’s as a result of for the primary time in 20 years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a united opposition threatening his grip on energy.

Turkey, a NATO ally on the border between Europe and Asia, has skilled a decade of democratic backsliding as Erdogan has methodically consolidated all branches of presidency underneath his authority. Experts say Sunday’s election will decide whether or not Turkey can return to democratic rule or will proceed its path towards an autocracy.

“Erdogan is the inventor of nativist, populist politics globally, and his defeat would mean something globally,” mentioned Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program on the Washington Institute.

This 12 months’s earthquakes took a political toll on Erdogan

The threat to Erdogan’s reign comes amid an financial and monetary disaster that has been compounded by deadly earthquakes this 12 months. Erdogan and his ruling AK Party have obtained a lot of the blame for the financial state of affairs.

Furthermore, alleged corruption and negligence that led to constructing code and security violations could have contributed to larger demise tolls from the earthquakes, in response to a preliminary report from scientists at Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

“Had the earthquake not happened, Erdogan would probably be leading in the polls today,” Cagaptay mentioned.

The irony that an earthquake and financial disaster may deliver down Erdogan isn’t misplaced on those that have adopted his political rise. It was a 1999 earthquake that killed 17,000 people that helped elevate his profile and catapulted him and his get together to victory within the 2002 basic election.

“It’s a parallel that almost every Turkish person made in the first days after this earthquake in February,” mentioned journalist and author Suzy Hansen, who lived and reported from Turkey for over a decade. “He was going to fix the economy, and he was going to eradicate corruption.”

Erdogan is credited with increasing the Turkish center class by making credit score extra simply accessible to these households. His authorities additionally launched into huge infrastructure tasks that offered numerous jobs. Gross domestic product per capita more than tripled throughout his first decade in workplace, from $3,600 in 2002 to $11,700 in 2012. He delivered development, lifted individuals out of poverty and improved entry to authorities providers, resembling well being care.

Economic troubles have eroded his standing

Those successes over his first 10 years in energy allowed him to construct a loyal base of followers. But that base is beginning to abandon Erdogan now as increasingly middle-class households are struggling to make ends meet in in the present day’s Turkey. Runaway inflation and a forex devaluation have seen costs surge in recent times. In April, meals costs elevated 54% 12 months on 12 months.

“People are hungry in Turkey,” Hansen mentioned. “People cannot afford meat. They can’t afford food. They can’t afford diapers. They are really struggling.”

Inflation has come down since reaching a excessive of greater than 85% in October. The Turkish lira has misplaced 76% of its worth throughout Erdogan’s second time period as president.

“People are angry,” Hansen mentioned. “I had one young man say to me, ‘If you watch the Turkish news, which is controlled by Erdogan, all they’re telling us is that life is great. And meanwhile, I can’t afford onions.'”

His stance on faith has additionally performed a job

But it isn’t simply financial challenges that threaten Erdogan. It’s additionally the political and cultural adjustments that he undertook throughout his second decade in energy. Erdogan, who grew up in a poor conservative Muslim household within the Anatolian hinterland, at all times felt like a second-class citizen in Turkey’s secular society, in response to Cagaptay.

His rise to energy within the early 2000s additionally led to the rise of political Islam within the nation. Many within the majority-Muslim nation stay loyal to Erdogan for making faith a much bigger a part of Turkish politics and society. At the identical time, it alienated extra progressive elements of society and people secularists who need to preserve faith out of politics.

“Erdogan has demonized so many groups from secularists to Kurdish nationalists to liberals to social democrats to leftists,” Cagaptay mentioned. “When you add them up, that makes up about half of Turkey’s population.”

And these teams for the primary time at the moment are united of their opposition to Erdogan.

Similar to different authoritarian rulers, Erdogan has tried to carry on to energy by going after his opponents. He additionally began to centralize the federal government round himself. In 2017, Turkey reworked from a parliamentary system to a presidential one after 51% of voters accredited the change in a public referendum.

This change got here lower than a 12 months after a failed military coup in July 2016. More than 300 individuals died within the clashes between the navy and Erdogan supporters throughout the coup try. Erdogan responded to the tried overthrow of his authorities with mass arrests and huge purges throughout the navy, authorities and civil service.

“He became head of state, head of government, head of ruling party, head of the national police and head of the military as chief of staff. He became all powerful as Turkey’s new sultan,” Cagaptay mentioned.

The change to this new presidential system signifies that for the primary time, Erdogan has to win 50% of the vote. Going into Sunday’s election, Erdogan and his main opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, are neck and neck within the polls.

Should not one of the candidates win greater than 50% of the vote, then there can be a runoff election on May 28 between the highest two candidates.

Cagaptay and Hansen each consider Erdogan will not go quietly if he loses the election.

He may even take a web page out of former President Donald Trump’s playbook and name on his supporters to cease any switch of energy.

“You could very well see the repeat of Jan. 6 in Turkey after the elections, if this is a closely contested race,” Cagaptay mentioned.