Introduction

One of the obvious but understudied traits in India over the previous decade has been the emergence of foreign policy as a home political situation. In the previous, students and shut observers have seen overseas coverage as principally an elite preoccupation—fodder for cocktail events, parlor room gossip, and assume tank seminars in city metros like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru. Foreign coverage was deemed too complicated, too summary, and too distant from the aam aadmi (frequent man), who was extra involved with assembly primary wants than with the Indian prime minister’s equation with their Chinese counterpart or India’s standing in multilateral boards.

But right this moment, as one surveys the political panorama in India, overseas coverage appears to have descended from its rarified perch. Conversations about India’s function on the earth could be heard on road corners, on the dinner desk, and across the proverbial water cooler. While elites would possibly nonetheless dominate the manufacturing of overseas coverage, its consumption has been democratized.

The downward penetration of overseas coverage is obvious in massive methods and small. Campaign posters in cities and cities throughout the nation hail India’s presidency of the G20. India’s exterior affairs minister is eagerly sought out by his social gathering’s regional bosses to talk to rank-and-file members about India’s standing on the earth. Even the political opposition has needed to sit up and take discover. Although opposition chief Rahul Gandhi’s frequent abroad forays would possibly provoke social media derision, his social gathering, the Indian National Congress (hereafter the Congress Party), has acknowledged that it, too, should articulate the function it envisions for India overseas. Indeed, the social gathering’s 2024 common election manifesto incorporates a number of pages on overseas coverage, protection, and inside safety.

As Indian voters put together to go to the polls in April–June, overseas coverage is definite to be an indicator of the marketing campaign because the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to make use of its decade-long monitor file to consolidate its maintain over the citizens. The rising home forex of overseas coverage have to be understood as half and parcel of India’s broader quest to grow to be a key participant in an more and more multipolar world order. The salience of overseas coverage to unusual Indians is pushed by a mixture of structural geopolitical shifts, the ideological moorings of the ruling BJP, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s distinctive political credibility. While the out there proof means that the elevation of overseas coverage is paying wealthy political dividends, the total vary of penalties stays unclear.

Rising Powers and the Quest for Status

In discussions about home politics throughout all elements of the democratic world, social standing and the follow of “status-seeking” are more and more on the coronary heart of political evaluation. Social identity theory holds that a person’s or group’s evaluation of their very own self-worth is inextricably linked to how others in society view their group’s standing. For occasion, the final a number of many years of India’s political growth have been formed by the so-called silent revolution of Dalits and backward castes. After independence, these traditionally deprived teams spent many years preventing for—and finally successful—larger social, financial, and political illustration. Of course, the pursuit from under of a politics of dignity was met with resistance from these located increased within the social hierarchy, who have been keen to stop the erosion of their very own social standing since their preeminence might now not be taken with no consideration. The friction that emerged between these in search of to enhance their standing and people wishing to carry on to their privileged place typically resulted in violence, dysfunction, and a renegotiation of social norms, a course of that continues to unfold right this moment in sure pockets of the nation.

In a really completely different political setting, the United States, appeals to standing proceed to be an indicator of home political competitors. Former president Donald Trump’s stunning election victory in 2016 was powered, not less than partially, by rising status anxiety among the many White working class. Many folks related to Trump’s motion have raised fears about sustaining a supposedly American identification amid a quickly altering and diversifying inhabitants. Some conservatives, in flip, cost liberal progressives with championing the standing issues of racial and ethnic minorities in a fashion that borders on reverse discrimination.

Status-seeking conduct has now grow to be entrenched in understanding people and teams in home politics in numerous polities, however a compelling logic extends these dynamics to states in worldwide relations. Rohan Mukherjee explains that rising powers like India care deeply about their place within the international hierarchy of states. As in home affairs, reaching the next “status” has each instrumental and expressive worth. In the world of worldwide relations, states pursue the next standing for themselves to facilitate entry into valued financial networks, key multilateral boards and standard-settings our bodies, and useful strategic partnerships. Status may imbue rising powers with what Mukherjee calls “symbolic equality,” which is manifested by norms, customs, and establishments that deal with rising powers as co-equals on the international excessive desk. These states need to be handled with the respect they imagine their rising clout accords.

To make sure, India’s quest for standing recognition isn’t novel. Prime ministers from Jawaharlal Nehru to Manmohan Singh have pronounced India’s civilizational exceptionalism and argued for India’s inclusion in unique golf equipment as befits one of many world’s nice powers. But there’s a palpable feeling that one thing qualitatively completely different is afoot with the Modi authorities. The current authorities has expressed not solely its need for India to transition from a “balancing” energy right into a “leading” one” but additionally the concept this standing transition has partly been achieved. To assist its declare, it factors to the truth that India is presently the world’s fastest-growing main financial system, boasts the world’s largest inhabitants, and is a much-sought-after accomplice for each the superior industrialized world and the Global South.

Previous Indian prime ministers have supported the idea of “polyvocality”—the notion that worldwide order must be formed by a variety of voices representing the pursuits of each the developed and the growing world. The Modi authorities has gone even additional—arguing for a worldwide order based mostly on the precept of multipolarity through which India serves as one of many principal poles. This shift in considering seems to resonate with a large swath of Indians, who wield aspirations for India domestically which are matched by their needs for the nation to challenge energy internationally.

From Elites to the Masses

Scholars have traditionally conceived of two classes of coverage points in India. As Ashutosh Varshney famously argued, there was a standard separation in India between “elite” points and “mass” points.” Elite points are those who maintain little resonance for the frequent individual. Rather, they’re mentioned, debated, and determined by a small slice of elites who train situation possession and revel in extensive freedom of maneuver. Questions of overseas coverage, nationwide protection, and worldwide commerce fall into this class. On the alternative finish of the spectrum sit “mass” points that immediately have an effect on the common Indian’s every day existence. This class consists of all kinds of points corresponding to inflation/worth rise, jobs, and welfare distribution.

The sharp bifurcation between “elite” and “mass” points has now damaged down. Starting in 2019, Indian voters started to usually speak about how Modi had put India on the map, implying that his management helped the nation leap from backwater to marquee standing. As one expert put it, “The message which has gone out is that India has really emerged very strong in the world. And it’s only because of Modi.” Put one other manner, there was a extensively held perception that India had lengthy been seen as a giant nation however not a very necessary one. Today, the sense emanating from many unusual Indians is that India is seen as each massive and necessary.

More systematic proof additionally helps this rivalry. In a May 2023 nationally consultant survey of Indians performed by the Lokniti Programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), at the side of NDTV, 63 percent of respondents reported that India’s international standing had risen since Modi assumed workplace in 2014. The identical ballot discovered that the majority Indians believed the nation had progressed in furthering its cultural capital, its standing as a world chief, and its attraction as a vacation spot for overseas funding throughout Modi’s tenure (see determine 1).

The February 2024 India Today Mood of the Nation ballot discovered that 19 percent of survey respondents believed that Modi could be most remembered for “raising India’s global stature.” This response was second solely to the development of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, a Hindu temple being constructed on the location of a fifteenth-century Islamic mosque that had been demolished by BJP-affiliated activists in 1992 (chosen by a whopping 42 % of respondents, maybe an artifact of the timing of the survey as the brand new temple was inaugurated in January 2024).

Yet the blurring strains between “elite” and “mass” points has remained underrecognized, due partly to difficulties of measurement. In a normal public opinion survey like those usually fielded on the eves of elections, it’s laborious to discern the affect of overseas coverage on home political decisions. In most surveys, voters are offered with an inventory of points that form their vote alternative on election day and are requested to pick out which is the “most important.” It isn’t a surprise that historically “mass” points like growth, inflation, or jobs and livelihoods usually prime the record. Indeed, Lokniti-CSDS nationwide election surveys since 2009 have constantly proven that voters determine economic-related issues as their foremost preoccupation when voting.

However, this doesn’t imply overseas coverage is unimportant domestically. In some cases, overseas coverage’s affect could be immediately noticed. In February 2019, simply two months earlier than voting started within the common election, terrorists attacked a convoy of Indian paramilitary forces in Pulwama, Kashmir, kicking off a quick, high-stakes standoff between India and Pakistan. The Pulwama assaults, and the Modi authorities’s subsequent airstrikes on terror coaching camps in Balakot, Pakistan, helped create a nationalist fervor that the BJP enthusiastically exploited, a activity made simpler by jingoistic media and social media echo chambers.

According to polling data from the Indo-Asian News Service and CVoter, satisfaction with the BJP central authorities had a 15-percentage-point bump within the weeks following the assaults in Pulwama and Balakot earlier than partially reverting (see determine 2). A Lokniti-CSDS survey discovered that roughly 80 % of voters within the 2019 common election had heard of the Balakot airstrike—46 % of whom favored Modi’s reelection, in comparison with 32 % amongst these unaware of India’s retaliatory strikes.

However, overseas coverage crises just like the 2019 Pulwama assaults and the next Balakot retaliation are comparatively rare, and their timing is unpredictable, that means that drawing clear inferences based mostly on well timed public opinion information could not all the time be attainable. Crises apart, overseas coverage is extra more likely to issue into the intangible “hawa”—the legendary “wind” or buzz that captures public sentiment round Indian elections. In this manner, the perceived good points that an incumbent makes within the overseas coverage area could not essentially be strongly mirrored in polling information in comparison with recognized, make-or-break Election Day points. Nonetheless, such good points can additional an impression of feat for the incumbent, aiding within the creation of a feel-good sentiment as voters solid their ballots. By the identical token, perceived overseas coverage losses might contribute to a common sentiment of negativity round a ruling social gathering.

Why Is Foreign Policy Emerging Now?

Arguably, there are two units of things that designate why overseas coverage is rising as a home political situation at this juncture in India’s historical past.

The first set consists of structural elements associated to the altering nature of worldwide order. For starters, the United States’ unipolar second following the tip of the Cold War has arguably come to an finish. Hobbled by deep home political divisions and reeling from a sequence of extended overseas interventions, America’s capability to form international order is more and more referred to as into doubt. China, fueled by a booming financial system (till just lately) and a need to develop its geopolitical footprint, has emerged as a transparent strategic competitor to the as soon as hegemonic United States. Russian revanchism below President Vladimir Putin has additionally grown, exhibited by its brazen invasion of Ukraine and need to inflict prices on the Western alliance.

The fragmentation of the worldwide order has created area for India to flex its overseas coverage muscle mass. China’s elevated assertiveness has grow to be a principal preoccupation of Western leaders who, in flip, have accelerated their courtship of India, which has turned extra receptive within the aftermath of Chinese border incursions in 2020. Although India didn’t unequivocally condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its Western companions however seized the second to try to wean India off Russian protection imports by casting doubt on Moscow’s reliability. Amid this churning, India has sought to exploit the rising variety of cleavages within the worldwide system to pursue its realist pursuits, skillfully taking part in adversaries off each other. India’s rising financial system, elevated relevance in multilateral negotiations dedicated to tackling international and transnational challenges, and strategic geography have made it an indispensable accomplice to just about all the good powers.

But the emergence of overseas coverage as a home concern goes past construction alone. The present authorities’s distinctive worldview represents a second important issue. The BJP authorities has seized upon the overseas coverage area as a vital pillar of its ambition, striving that India below Modi’s management reclaim its historic function as a civilizational energy. The prime minister has proposed that he and his authorities are main India out of “twelve centuries of slavery” marked by repeated overseas invasions and the ignominy of colonial rule. Instead, this considering goes, his authorities is ushering in a brand new period of “Amrit Kaal” (a Vedic idea in regards to the gates of delight opening to the world). Such grand considering reveals his conviction that India inhabits a geopolitical candy spot right this moment. As External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has put it, “The world is actually today getting ready for us. It is we who have to make that effort to prepare for a bigger role . . . with a sense of historical and ivilizational responsibility.”

According to proponents of this view, the Modi authorities’s formidable agenda for India stands in sharp distinction to the fecklessness of the opposition. The Congress Party regime of Manmohan Singh was perceived as unwilling to train energy globally in ways in which maximized India’s personal pursuits. Modi himself has explicitly painted this distinction, denouncing earlier Congress Party governments’ train of what they referred to as “strategic restraint” within the face of terrorist assaults. As the prime minister just lately remarked at an election rally in Bihar, “Even a small country (Pakistan) which reported a shortage of flour would be bold enough to launch a terrorist attack on us, and the Congress government would just take up the complaint with another country.”

Modi’s distinctive combine of non-public recognition, ambition, and advertising savvy has satisfied many Indians that his management is an intrinsic a part of India’s revival, at residence and overseas. And his capability to market his authorities’s achievements is second to none.

The frenetic pace of activity round India’s presidency of the G20—consisting of greater than 200 occasions in additional than sixty cities—demonstrated the Modi authorities’s need to speak its overseas coverage achievements to the lots. India’s G20 brand, which creatively included the BJP’s signature lotus flower, was slapped on every thing from main archeological websites to standardized assessments. Posters and billboards hailing India’s presidency plastered flyovers, practice stations, and main thoroughfares, and plenty of Indians seen this milestone as a coronation slightly than the nation’s routine flip assuming an yearly rotating management place. This bodily advertising onslaught was paired with digital mobilization, fueled by deepening smartphone penetration and the plummeting price of information. “Why shouldn’t G20 be used for domestic politics?” thundered Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah. “If G20 has come to the country during Modiji’s time . . . then Modiji must get credit.”

Reaping Political Rewards

The effort to harness India’s overseas coverage standing for home political functions is very noteworthy due to the clear proof that it has consolidated home assist for the present authorities.

According to the 2023 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, practically seven in ten Indians believed that their nation’s international affect was getting stronger (see determine 3). Furthermore, eight in ten Indians had a good opinion of Modi’s efficiency as prime minister (with 55 % holding a “very favorable” view). Not surprisingly, respondents who have been supporters of the ruling BJP alliance have been particularly bullish on India’s international prospects, with 77 % reporting the nation’s affect as rising. Even amongst those that didn’t assist the Modi authorities, six in ten agreed with the notion that India’s standing had risen.

Indians maintain particularly optimistic views about their nation’s function of their neighborhood. In a nationally consultant 2022 survey performed by CVoter and the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), 33 % of Indian respondents reported that India wielded essentially the most affect in Asia, with the United States a distant second at fifteen % and China a hair under at fourteen % (see determine 4).

A more moderen domestic survey of younger, city Indians, performed by YouGov in partnership with CPR and Mint, discovered very excessive ranges of public satisfaction with the Modi authorities, together with on overseas coverage issues. For occasion, 70 % of respondents have been happy with India’s conduct as host of the G20, and a roughly equal share maintained a good view of the federal government’s efforts to guard the nation from terrorist assaults. Even on the problem of Chinese incursions alongside the nation’s disputed northern border, six in ten respondents have been happy with the way in which the federal government had dealt with the continued dispute.

Interestingly, foreigners have been much less impressed by India’s function on the earth and Modi’s management. The Pew survey discovered that, in nineteen international locations throughout the developed and growing world, a median of 28 % believed India’s international affect had grown whereas 48 % believed it had stayed the identical. Across a smaller pattern of a dozen international locations, a median of 37 % held a optimistic view of Modi (albeit with giant numbers expressing no opinion).

Lingering Questions

The newfound home resonance of overseas coverage is a placing growth in a rustic the place such issues have been lengthy out of sight and, therefore, out of thoughts for many Indian voters. But the transition of overseas coverage from an elite to mass situation additionally raises pertinent questions in regards to the implications of this growth for home politics.

The Limits of Accountability

In 2018, students Vipin Narang and Paul Staniland argued that there are particular circumstances below which overseas coverage would possibly resonate politically in a democracy like India. They posited that two elements play a figuring out function: readability of accountability and situation salience. On the primary consideration, the flexibility of home audiences to use credit score or blame to political leaders for the conduct of overseas coverage hinges, partially, on their capability to determine a transparent chain of accountability. For occasion, when a coalition authorities is in energy, it may be laborious for unusual voters to know which social gathering or chief is answerable for a given coverage success or blunder.

In single-party-majority governments, particularly these helmed by a charismatic chief who holds a good grip on the reins of energy, voters have a a lot simpler job. But home consideration can be conditional on a second issue: the character of the overseas coverage situation at hand. The intricacies of a free-trade settlement, as an illustration, may be much less resonant than how a authorities responds to a terrorist assault. Taking these two dimensions collectively, overseas coverage is anticipated to have the best home import when each readability of accountability and situation salience are at their highest.

China’s 2020 incursions into India would appear to fulfill each circumstances. Chinese forces crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) into India, infringing on and in the end occupying territory beforehand managed by India. China’s strikes have been brazen, condemned by India and lots of the nation’s companions, and validated by third-party satellite tv for pc imagery. And they passed off lower than a yr after the Modi authorities received reelection with a powerful mandate, rising the BJP’s parliamentary seat tally regardless of 5 years of incumbency.

And but, maybe surprisingly, the mixture of readability of accountability and situation salience didn’t result in severe democratic accountability. To the opposite, the Modi authorities doesn’t appear to have paid any home price for a overseas coverage setback that occurred on its watch and that is still unresolved right this moment. If the ruling social gathering enjoys the good points accrued from perceived overseas coverage successes—such because the internet hosting of the G20 or the June 2023 White House state dinner in Modi’s honor—why does it not endure any draw back from overseas coverage losses? This query requires deeper investigation, however, at first look, there are three potential explanations.

First, widespread assist for Modi is so appreciable that, regardless of experiencing short-term losses, voters could imagine that the prime minister will finally reverse these setbacks. This argument has an analogy in home coverage: regardless of a file of combined financial progress whereas in workplace, many Indian voters believe that Modi’s imaginative and prescient for the nation will in the end end in widespread prosperity, even when the gathered file thus far leaves a lot to be desired.

A second rationalization pertains to the data setting. What occurs alongside a contested border that isn’t clearly demarcated is tough sufficient for consultants to decipher, a lot much less unusual voters. This murkiness is compounded by the appreciable influence the federal government wields over the media, opening up the potential for both killing uncomfortable tales or cowing newsrooms into silence. Added to that is the truth that the ruling social gathering has prevented an open debate on the border disaster on the ground of Parliament and blocked the opposition (and, by extension, the general public) from scrutinizing its file. Indeed, one outspoken BJP member of Parliament criticized the federal government for evading an open dialogue of the border standoff.

A 3rd rationalization could possibly be voters’ restricted belief within the opposition. Even if the citizens is worried about India’s lack of face vis-a-vis China alongside the LAC, it’s attainable that they’ve little religion that the opposition would do a greater job dealing with the disaster. After all, the border battle is a long-standing dispute that the Congress Party, in its many many years in energy, couldn’t resolve in India’s favor. In such circumstances, the incentives to carry the federal government accountable are muted.

Unintended Electoral Consequences

As the home salience of overseas coverage will increase, a second situation pertains to the unintended penalties of nationalist rallying. Consider once more the results of the Pulwama assaults of 2019. On a nationwide scale, the assaults contributed to a rally-around-the-flag impact that undoubtedly bolstered the BJP’s election prospects. The assaults shifted voters’ attention away from quotidian points just like the financial system and unemployment—areas the place the ruling BJP was on shakier floor—towards problems with nationwide safety, the place the social gathering’s nationalist credentials gave it a large situation benefit.

However, whereas the assaults appeared to gas a nationalist rallying at a macro degree, the BJP confronted greater voter blowback in areas the place publicity to the Pulwama losses was best (such because the villages and cities the slain troopers referred to as residence). In different phrases, greater exposure to losses emanating from this specific safety disaster tapered the extent of rallying in assist of the nationalist incumbent. These setbacks had little affect on the general consequence as a result of the losses have been dispersed and extremely localized. However, if the Pulwama casualties had been extra widespread, then there might have been a larger backlash towards the BJP.

Risks of Foreign Policy Overreach

A 3rd and ultimate query includes the distinct feeling within the corridors of energy in New Delhi that, as one reporter summarized, “the world needs India more than India needs the world.” While authorities officers won’t broadcast this from the rooftops, their private and non-private utterances reveal a confidence and self-assurance that aligns with this perspective.

This perception that India’s time has arrived could have inspired some in authorities to pursue the focused assassinations of Sikh separatist leaders Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, which succeeded, and Gurpatwant Singh Pannun within the United States, which didn’t. To be clear, official Indian involvement has solely been conjectured in each circumstances, with the previous homicide below investigation and the latter the topic of an ongoing prison prosecution. A commonly heard refrain in India is that whereas there’s disputed proof of the Indian authorities’s function, if it was concerned, it will be an indication of the nation’s rising nice energy standing. Such a response implies that India would have achieved the impunity to undertake the sorts of covert operations overseas which have beforehand been the hallmarks of richer, extra established powers like Israel, Russia, and the United States.

Domestically, India’s overseas coverage adventurism is probably going to assist, slightly than damage, the ruling social gathering’s recognition. But it’s a technique laden with dangers for India’s relations with worldwide companions. While Canada may be too trivial a participant to matter, India’s relationship with the United States is of important significance. While the U.S. administration betrays no need to permit these incidents to derail a rising strategic partnership, India’s pursuit of dangerous overseas escapades that play effectively at residence holds the potential for souring relations overseas. Good politics, in different phrases, won’t all the time make for good coverage.

In the weeks forward, Carnegie students and contributors will probably be analyzing varied dimensions of India’s upcoming election battle—such because the evolution of conservative events and the regulation of marketing campaign finance. Keep updated with the challenge here.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Aislinn Familetti, Paul Staniland, and Ashley J. Tellis for useful feedback on a earlier draft. They thank Alana Brase and Haley Clasen for editorial help and Amanda Branom for assist with graphic design.