Minnesota Twins

2023 file: 87-75 (.537)

First place, AL Central

Team ERA: 3.87 (sixth)

Team OPS: .753 (seventh)

What Went Right

Getting to play within the AL Central was positively a boon.

The rotation, prime to backside, was most likely the perfect in baseball, trailing solely that pf the Padres by way of ERA. Sonny Gray will end within the prime three within the AL in Cy Young balloting, and Pablo López regarded like an ace within the second half. Joe Ryan slipped as the results of a groin pressure, however he nonetheless managed a 197/34 Ok/BB ratio in 161 2/3 innings, and Bailey Ober pitched to a 3.43 ERA in his 26 begins. On offense, the subsequent wave emerged, with Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner excelling as rookies. The Twins additionally received superb performances from Ryan Jeffers, Michael A. Taylor and Willi Castro, all of whom have been anticipated to play lesser roles than they ended up doing.

What Went Wrong

Injuries restricted Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to lower than 100 video games. Buxton, particularly, made little affect as a DH with a 98 OPS+. Carlos Correa managed to play in 135 video games, however he was disappointing offensively and defensively whereas coping with plantar fasciitis all through. Christian Vázquez, signed to start out over Jeffers, was horrible offensively in hitting .223/.280/.318. Joey Gallo batted .177. One seventy-seven. Jose Miranda batted .211/.263/.303 in 40 video games earlier than finally present process shoulder surgical procedure. Big 2022 commerce acquisition Tyler Mahle required Tommy John surgical procedure.

Fantasy Slants

** Lewis will probably be the primary Twin taken in fantasy drafts subsequent spring after hitting .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and 52 RBI in 58 video games as a rookie, however can he keep wholesome? The 24-year-old missed all of 2021 with a torn proper ACL and injured the ligament once more in 2022, limiting him to 46 video games then and costing him the primary month and a half of final season. He later missed 5 weeks with an indirect pressure and two weeks with a groin pressure. In whole, he’s performed in 118 video games in three years. He nonetheless has some contact points as nicely, and he isn’t fairly a certain factor offensively. As a fourth- or possibly even a third-round decide, he’d appear to be one to shrink back from.

** López is the man who may go forward of Lewis, and it’s not far-fetched to take a look at him as a top-five SP after a season wherein he struck out 29 p.c of the batters he confronted. Statcast gave him the perfect xERA (3.00) of any certified starter, and SIERA had him fifth.

** While it was rib and hamstring accidents that put him on the IL, Buxton’s proper knee was the primary wrongdoer in his incapacity to play middle subject. He underwent one other surgical procedure after the season, and the hope is that he’ll return to the sector subsequent 12 months. His fantasy inventory is to date down at this level that he’ll make for an attention-grabbing goal. His velocity was really intact final 12 months, and he stole 9 bases in 85 video games. His strikeout price was up, however that wasn’t supported by his contact numbers, which have been a bit higher than regular. He’ll nearly definitely miss a good period of time once more, but when his knee responds, he may very well be fairly a bit extra invaluable for fantasy functions when he’s wholesome.

** Ryan was a top-10 fantasy starter for 3 months, going 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA and a 100/15 Ok/BB ratio in his first 15 begins. He had a loopy 0.91 WHIP in 93 2/3 innings over that span. He began to battle whereas hiding a groin pressure that ended up sidelining him for many of August, and with a tricky schedule that included two begins in opposition to Texas and outings in Cincinnati and Colorado, he pitched to a 4.79 ERA regardless of a forty five/9 Ok/BB ratio in 35 2/3 innings after returning. It was positively a disappointing conclusion for individuals who well focused him within the spring, but it surely additionally means his price ticket will likely be cheap subsequent 12 months, and he ought to once more be a significant asset in WHIP and strikeouts.

** The Twins will quickly must determine how one can make room for Brooks Lee, the eighth total decide within the 2022 draft. A pure shortstop, Lee began enjoying a bit third base after his promotion to Triple-A within the second half of the season, and if the Twins assume he’ll be prepared in some unspecified time in the future subsequent season, it is going to play into their considering on what to do with Polanco. Correa isn’t going anyplace, however the Twins have some flexibility with Lewis, who might shift from third to an outfield nook as soon as Lee proves worthy of a possibility.

Key Free Agents

Sonny Gray, Jorge Polanco*, Max Kepler*, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano, Joey Gallo, Emilio Pagán, Dylan Floro

Polanco ($10.5 million) and Kepler ($10 million) will definitely have their cheap membership choices exercised, although they might change into commerce bait afterwards.

Team Needs

In spite of the lengthy free agent record, the Twins are in superb place coming into 2024. Again, it helps a bunch that they’re within the AL Central. They do have to re-sign Gray or exchange him with one other high quality various. Chris Paddack, again from Tommy John, can step in because the fifth starter, with Louie Varland in reserve and prime prospect David Festa on the way in which. A setup man in entrance of Jhoan Duran would assist. Buxton in middle and Kirilloff at first base are the large query marks on offense, however the Twins might principally take a wait-and-see method there. They have a whole lot of flexibility, and if they should improve later, it gained’t be arduous to seek out nook gamers. They can’t depend on their beginning pitchers performing fairly so nicely once more, however they’ll go into the 2024 as the category of their division.