Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: India hosts a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation international ministers’ assembly, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina passes by means of Washington however not the White House, and a Chinese state firm proclaims recent funding in Sri Lanka.

India’s authorities hosts the international ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) within the coastal metropolis of Goa on Thursday and Friday. India at present chairs the eight-member group, which was established in 2001 and seeks to foster collaboration on safety and growth in Asia. The international ministers’ assembly comes forward of the SCO leaders’ summit scheduled for July in New Delhi.

One main storyline forward of the summit is the attendance of Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, which is able to mark the first visit to India by a Pakistani international minister since 2011. Some observers have questioned if a reconciliation effort is within the works. But for Islamabad, Bhutto Zardari’s go to is much less an try and patch up ties with New Delhi than a chance to strengthen engagement with the SCO and advance its foreign-policy pursuits.

Consider the SCO’s benefits for Pakistan. Historically, China and Russia have led the group—Islamabad’s closest ally and an essential new friend, respectively. Half of the SCO membership relies in Central Asia, the place Pakistan hopes to deepen engagement to increase commerce and connectivity—and it’s already succeeding: In 2021, Uzbekistan inked a deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan to develop a transnational rail system.

In some multilateral organizations that embody each India and Pakistan, Islamabad is at an obstacle as a result of New Delhi is probably the most highly effective member. (Take, for instance, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.) But India’s clout within the SCO is constrained by the presence of its strategic rival China. The conflict in Ukraine has additionally pushed Moscow closer to Beijing—which can imply waning Russian affect throughout the SCO and much more energy for China.

Like Pakistan, India hopes to scale up its ties with resource-rich Central Asian states. The area has quietly change into a battleground for competitors between the 2 international locations. India lacks direct land entry to Afghanistan, a key gateway to Central Asia, nevertheless it has compensated by establishing new mechanisms for normal conferences with governments within the area. Pakistan’s attendance on the Goa summit could purpose to sign that it doesn’t intend to cede any extra floor to India in terms of Central Asia.

None of that is to say that Pakistan isn’t additionally approaching Bhutto Zardari’s journey by means of a bilateral lens. Given the political and financial turmoil again dwelling, Islamabad is eager to maintain tensions with New Delhi low. The go to will construct on greater than two years of comparatively secure relations. It could be a confidence-building measure, particularly after Pakistan’s protection minister opted to attend a gathering along with his SCO counterparts final month just about as a substitute of in individual.

Indian media report that Pakistan requested a gathering between Bhutto Zardari and his Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar. Pakistani officers denied this, albeit anonymously. Either approach, it might be misguided to see the Pakistani international minister’s go to as an try and kick-start a reconciliation course of. Just final month, Indian officers blamed Pakistan-based terrorists for an assault in India-administered Kashmir.

New Delhi received’t be inclined to expend political capital on forging dialogue with a weak and unpopular administration in Islamabad, particularly with Indian elections only a yr away. (Pakistan’s personal elections are at present scheduled for October.) And Pakistan’s authorities would danger critical political injury by extending a hand to an Indian administration resented in Pakistan due to its Kashmir insurance policies and therapy of Indian Muslims.

The Bhutto Zardari go to is a regional crucial for Pakistan, not a bilateral one. By skipping the SCO summit, Islamabad would danger shedding clout throughout the group—which is dominated by an ally, contains members it’s eager to domesticate deeper ties with, and finally limits the affect of New Delhi.

Bangladesh’s PM visits Washington. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will go away Washington on Thursday after a nearly weeklong visit. Her engagements primarily targeted on financial points, together with conferences with the administrators of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S.-Bangladesh Business Council, and members of the Bangladeshi diaspora. Hasina’s public comments touched on financial development, however she additionally made pitches for financial help.

Although Bangladesh’s financial system is one among South Asia’s prime financial success tales, it has additionally experienced rising inflation and debt in current months. Dhaka inked a brand new accord with the IMF in January.

What stands out about Hasina’s go to is that it featured no identified conferences with the Biden administration, which has sought to scale up cooperation with Bangladesh. The United States lately started describing its ties with Bangladesh as a strategic partnership. To make sure, Hasina didn’t come to Washington on the invitation of the White House, however her go to does come amid tensions over U.S. criticism of Dhaka’s report on democracy.

Just final month, Hasina spoke earlier than Parliament and indirectly accused the Biden administration of attempting to stage regime change in Bangladesh.

New Chinese funding in Sri Lanka. This week, the state-run China Merchants Group announced that it’ll make investments practically $400 million to assemble a logistics advanced in Sri Lanka’s port of Colombo. The project, which the corporate described as the largest logistics hub in South Asia, is anticipated to be accomplished by 2025. The growth is without doubt one of the first main international investments in Sri Lanka because it defaulted on its debt final yr. China Merchants Group could have a 70 % stake within the undertaking.

This means that China thinks Sri Lanka’s financial system has stabilized sufficient to have the ability to tackle a big new undertaking. Furthermore, the funding indicators that Colombo has not been deterred from Chinese infrastructure funding even after controversy. In 2017, China received a 99-year lease to develop and handle Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, an association that hasn’t sat properly with many Sri Lankans.

China Merchants Group additionally manages the Hambantota port; it said this week that its complete investments in Sri Lanka will now strategy $2 billion.

Record permits for Mount Everest. This climbing season, Nepal’s tourism division has issued a record-high variety of permits to Mount Everest climbers—greater than 460, as of final week. Officials haven’t defined the surge in permits, however the climbing business brings in excessive revenues for Nepal. With the nation experiencing critical financial stress, particularly high inflation, the ensuing earnings will profit Kathmandu.

But with financial advantages come potential security dangers. Volatile climate circumstances go away restricted home windows for climbing, fueling issues about overcrowding as climbers, guides, and different assist employees start their ascents. Four people have already died throughout the 2023 climbing season, though the causes had been sickness and accidents. Still, lengthy traces on mountain trails have sparked safety concerns up to now, together with in 2019, when 9 folks died throughout the climbing season.

A speech by a prime U.N. official about Afghanistan final month generated a storm of controversy forward of a high-level U.N.-sponsored convention in Qatar this week. Speaking at Princeton University on April 17, U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed suggested that the upcoming convention with particular envoys from all over the world would give attention to doable steps for recognition of the Taliban regime. No nation has acknowledged the regime, and the Taliban don’t occupy Afghanistan’s seat on the United Nations.

Taliban critics lambasted Mohammed and the U.N. for even entertaining the idea of recognition. As the convention convened on Monday, protesters gathered all over the world to demand that the U.N. not take into account recognition, together with women in Kabul. U.N. spokespeople, nonetheless, have suggested that Mohammed’s feedback had been misinterpreted, saying that recognition was not on the convention agenda.

The convention—which didn’t invite Taliban representatives, sparking condemnations from the group—merely supposed to deliver collectively Afghanistan-focused senior diplomats to find common ground on find out how to have interaction with the Taliban regime about key challenges. But the skin issues about its aims overshadowed the occasion, highlighting the sensitivity of the difficulty.

Although many activists and diplomats agree that the Taliban don’t deserve recognition, the group is much less remoted right now than when it final held energy within the late Nineties. Its leaders meet incessantly with diplomats exterior Afghanistan, and a few of Afghanistan’s neighbors have kept their embassies open in Kabul.

In Al Jazeera, Mohammad Hanif, a physician in Pakistan’s Sindh province, writes that individuals are nonetheless struggling practically a yr after catastrophic floods within the nation. “It’s been seven months and the water level is still so high that people can’t return to their homes. … I have been able to return to my home but that’s not the case for many people who are still living in tents,” he writes.

A Kathmandu Post editorial warns that political instability is worsening Nepal’s financial stress. “Those charged with steadying the economy are fighting among themselves rather than working together to pull the country out of the current mess,” it argues. “There is no political consensus on how to reinvigorate the moribund economy.”

Analyst Huma Yusuf argues in Dawn that China’s mediation of a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to be replicated with India and Pakistan. “China has limited potential to serve as a mediator in South Asia,” she writes. “China is a more direct participant in our region’s conflict dynamics.”