Anchal Vohra is a world affairs commentator and was based mostly in Beirut till lately.

The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) was launched on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi amid a lot fanfare.

A key pillar of United States President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific and Middle East methods, the American chief hailed the mission as a “real big deal.’’ European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen called it “nothing less than historic,’’ and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — under whom the country has decided to try and shake up China’s global supply chain dominance — sold IMEC as the “basis of world trade for hundreds of years to come.”

Described as Biden’s different to China’s Belt and Road Initiative — Beijing’s multinational infrastructure and commerce mission — the West hopes IMEC can restrict China’s rising geopolitical affect. However, the continuing Israel-Hamas battle has now put a spanner within the works, and it’s stalling IMEC’s improvement.

With struggle raging within the Middle East, the prospect of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has dimmed, taking hopes for the hall together with it — no less than for now. And so long as Gaza’s destiny stays unclear, so will IMEC’s future.

As a transcontinental maritime and railway community transporting not simply items but in addition power and information by way of pipelines and cables, IMEC would join the Indian coast to European markets. It would do that by way of a transport path to the United Arab Emirates, which then runs overland by way of a rail community to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, after which items could be loaded onto ships to cross the Mediterranean and dock in Greece.

Upon getting into a European port, the commodities would then be moved onward to Germany, Italy and France — international locations which have all come onboard as co-signatories of the Memorandum of Understanding agreed upon in New Delhi.

However, IMEC is a big enterprise riddled with many logistical and monetary challenges. And whereas the most important hurdle to its viability is now Hamas’ October 7 assaults on Israel, different questions relating to the mission’s viability have existed from its very starting.

For instance, it nonetheless stays unclear who precisely can pay the tens of billions of {dollars} wanted to enhance present infrastructure and fill within the gaps. The hall requires greater than 2,000 kilometers of railroad, and huge elements of it nonetheless must be constructed within the difficult terrain of the Middle East.

So far, there’s been no feasibility research performed on the pipelines to be laid to move clear hydrogen, or on the promised high-speed digital cables meant to optimize digital companies. On prime of all that, a state-owned Chinese firm is at present the bulk stakeholder within the Piraeus port — the biggest in Greece and IMEC’s important entry level into Europe.

The geopolitical challenges don’t finish there.

For one, the transport route from Haifa in Israel to Greece goes by way of waters disputed by Turkey, which isn’t part of IMEC. And for sure, Ankara isn’t happy. “There’s no hall with out Turkey,’’ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned.

Moreover, specialists have identified an much more basic challenge with anticipating IMEC to dissuade Gulf nations from warming to China. According to Emirati political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, at present, the Gulf isn’t utterly aligned with both the U.S. or China, and it’s making its choices based mostly on nationwide curiosity.

“We will not be in anyone’s pockets,’’ he advised POLITICO. “Sometimes our pursuits align with the U.S. and generally with China. The Gulf is assured sufficient now to make its personal choices.’’

And but, none of those preexisting considerations stopped IMEC’s seven signatories from saying the mission. Some specialists recommend this will have been as a result of the mission is, maybe, extra of a political ploy; a speaking level for upcoming elections relatively than a severe mission by which the West will make investments severe cash. After all, the European Parliament, the U.S. and India are all going to the polls subsequent yr.

But IMEC’s proponents imagine the mission is backed by sturdy political will.

India, for instance, which overtook China because the world’s most populous nation this yr, is determined to generate jobs, however its present overland commerce path to the West is blocked by Pakistan — its conventional archfoe. Meanwhile, its different commerce route, the India North-South Trade Corridor, runs by way of sanctions-hit Iran, solely to finish in sanctions-hit Russia.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alternatively, want to diversify away from fossil fuels, and each international locations see IMEC as a software to broaden their financial exercise with none strings connected to their human rights efficiency.

And Biden, for his half, is set to create financial integration in numerous areas as a option to cease China in its tracks. And shortly after October 7, the U.S. president stated that although he didn’t have proof, he was satisfied that one of many causes behind the Hamas assaults was to impede progress on Israel’s regional integration. “We can’t leave that work behind,” he added.

“American curiosity in exploring and growing Indian provide chains has intensified beneath Biden,’’ a senior Indian diplomat based mostly in Europe advised POLITICO on situation of anonymity to have the ability to converse freely. “The U.S. is dedicated to mak[ing] this a hit; it’s an enormous a part of their design,’’ he stated.

Along these traces, months earlier than the memorandum of understanding on IMEC was even signed, Indian businessman Gautam Adani outbid the Chinese for a stake in Haifa port in January. He then visited Greece with Modi in August to attempt to safe their ports as nicely. “We welcome India’s curiosity in gaining higher entry to the port of Piraeus and investing in different Greek ports, in an effort to create gateways for its exports to Europe,’’ stated Vassilis Korkidis, head of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry, on the time.

Greece is raring to be the commerce hub between Europe and growing nations, and to play a task in securing the Continent’s power wants — an more and more pressing operate due to Russia’s struggle on Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia, in the meantime, has already dedicated to speculate $20 billion in IMEC — a big a part of which is able to presumably go towards laying down the wanted home rail community. And as Abdulla famous in reference to the UAE’s rail community, “We have already got almost 90 p.c of our rail infrastructure prepared.’’

Thus, amongst signatories, it seems to be the European Union that’s the most reluctant. According to analysts, the EU’s reticence to problem China is not any secret, and its acquiescence to becoming a member of IMEC could nicely have been a method of placating Biden.

The struggle in Gaza can also be purpose for Europe’s lack of enthusiasm, and, in keeping with the Indian diplomat, it has “slowed down’’ the mission’s progress. Jacob Kirkegaard of the German Marshall Fund thinks equally, noting that in relation to IMEC, “the battle in Gaza, that’s the joker.’’

This all implies that at the beginning, IMEC’s future is now depending on the resumption of normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which might go both method. However, Abdulla is hopeful that after the mud settles, talks will choose up as soon as extra.

“My evaluation is that in a couple of months, when the struggle ends, everyone can be in a greater place to debate a detente and resume normalization,’’ he stated.