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The Biden administration has been notably quiet as tensions escalate between India and Canada following the homicide of a Sikh separatist chief in British Columbia. Don’t count on extra noise from the White House anytime quickly.

Today, New Delhi expelled 41 of Canada’s 62 diplomats — its most drastic measure towards Ottawa after Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s accusation that India may have been involved within the killing of HARDEEP SINGH NIJJAR, a Sikh chief who was gunned down in June outdoors Vancouver.

The two nations have traded diplomatic blows since Trudeau’s broadside two weeks in the past, banishing diplomats and publicly lambasting each other ad infinitum to the battle.

For now, the United States has relegated itself to taking part in a minor position, seemingly content material with letting issues play out and urging cooperation to keep away from angering Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI, an ally with whom the White House has worked hard to shore up relations.

“We’re trying not to lose India over confronting Modi’s behavior or inaction unless … something shows it to be outside the kind of norms that we expected in the Western alliance,” CHRISTOPHER SANDS, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, instructed NatSec Daily.

It’s a balancing act for the White House. While The New York Times reported that Washington supplied intel that helped gas Trudeau’s accusation, the Biden administration is basically retaining the matter at arms-length publicly.

“Let these two countries speak to their bilateral relations,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY instructed reporters at this time.

Last week, nonetheless, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN urged Indian officers to cooperate with Canada, Reuters reported, and nationwide safety advisor JAKE SULLIVAN additionally spoke with New Delhi’s international minister, although few particulars from the talks had been revealed. State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER has additionally instructed reporters that the U.S. is in talks with the Canadian and Indian governments on the matter.

The U.S. is being cautious as a result of it hopes with Canada spearheading the difficulty, “we can avoid a major split in the alliance,” Sands stated. “Canada will raise the charge … and what we would love to see now is not this escalation — actually the reverse, finding a way to cooperate.”

But some members of the Biden administration consider its relationship with Modi may develop into extra fraught within the close to time period, a State Department official aware of the difficulty who was granted anonymity to debate a delicate matter instructed NatSec Daily.

U.S. Ambassador to India ERIC GARCETTI has instructed his in-country group that, due to the diplomatic spat with Canada, relations between India and the U.S. may worsen for a time, the official stated. Garcetti additionally has stated the U.S. may have to scale back its contacts with Indian officers for an undefined time frame.

When requested for touch upon the matter, a State Department spokesperson, granted anonymity to debate a delicate diplomatic difficulty, was blunt:

“We don’t have anything for you on this,” the spokesperson stated. “Ambassador Garcetti is a champion of our strong partnership with the Indian people and the Indian government. Our relationship with India is an important, strategic, and consequential partnership.”

At least for now, a personal dialogue between Ottawa and New Delhi will proceed, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY instructed reporters at this time. Expect Washington to sit down totally on the sidelines.

“The U.S. is going to walk this tightrope as delicately and cautiously as it can. It knows India will not respond to overbearing hectoring but it also can’t throw its neighbor and NATO ally, Canada, under the bus,” MILAN VAISHNAV, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s South Asia program, instructed NatSec Daily.

LOOKING AHEAD IN UKRAINE: Ukraine’s counteroffensive has progressed very slowly because it started over the summer time, and up to date studies present that Russia’s “elastic defense” could also be an enormous purpose why, The New York Times’ MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG reports.

That tactic includes Russian troops ceding floor to Ukrainians earlier than placing again after they’re weak, after they’re shifting throughout open fields or at deserted Russian positions. On Monday, it performed out within the Zaporizhzhia area when Moscow’s troops stated they attacked Kyiv’s forces, whereas Ukraine stated it “repelled the attacks.”

The goal is to forestall Ukranians from gaining sufficient traction to safe land to stage extra offensives, typically resulting in conflicting studies of what went down.

Ukraine has made small positive factors although, and it’s pushing for the West to proceed offering army help to maintain the momentum going. But some allies are frightened concerning the results on their very own militaries. To ease their issues, President JOE BIDEN at this time referred to as a number of Western nations to reassure them that U.S. assist would proceed, our own KELLY GARRITY reports.

“We cannot keep on giving from our own stockpiles,” one European official told our own PAUL McLEARY and LARA SELIGMAN. The official added that there’s nonetheless sturdy public and political assist for Ukraine’s battle, however “we’ve given everything that will not endanger our own security.”

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has $5.4 billion left in reserves to ship army help to Kyiv, even with Congress’ failure to incorporate extra funding for Ukraine over the weekend, two U.S. officers aware of the discussions instructed Paul and Lara.

News of the dwindling price range got here as Pentagon leaders despatched a letter to Congress warning that they’re operating low on cash to exchange Kyiv’s weapons, The Associated Press’ LOLITA BALDOR and TARA COPP reported Monday evening. Pentagon Comptroller MICHAEL McCORD wrote that the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative — which gives long-term funding — was fully depleted.

The Defense Department has “enough funding authorities to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs for just a little bit longer, but we need Congress to act to ensure there is no disruption in our support,” spokesperson SABRINA SINGH instructed reporters at this time.

Read: Ukraine puts on brave face as West goes wobbly by our personal NICHOLAS VINOCUR, PAOLA TAMMA and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CIA LAWSUIT: A feminine CIA worker who stated she was sexually assaulted by a male colleague sued the agency today, DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in.

She claims her employer engaged in “criminal witness tampering” and violated the Civil Rights Act and Privacy Act, alleging the company made it tougher for her to get justice towards her attacker.

The lawsuit alleges the company tried to forestall her from lodging a legal criticism towards her colleague. It additionally claims the CIA improperly divulged private info held in its data to the colleague’s protection counsel to unfold false allegations of an extramarital affair in an effort to forestall her from testifying at a legal trial.

The lawsuit additionally says the company’s HR workplace had reviewed her “time-and-attendance records” after she spoke to Congress during its investigation into whether or not the CIA is mishandling sexual assault instances by staff.

The girl, who’s unnamed within the criticism, stated the CIA’s public affairs workplace in August pulled her out of a coaching session to inform her The Associated Press was deciding whether or not to publish her identify in a narrative concerning the legal case towards her assailant. That would have successfully ended her company profession, her legal professionals stated. But the lawsuit stated the assertion was unfaithful and the AP was by no means going to call her since she was a sexual assault sufferer.

A spokesperson for the CIA stated they’re unable to touch upon litigation however the company protects the privateness of officers and follows the legislation. “More broadly, CIA continues to take concerns about our handling of employee allegations of sexual assault and harassment extremely seriously, and we have already taken significant steps in this regard,” the spokesperson added in a press release. “We are focused on instilling in all officers a culture of duty to act, and ensuring they know they are encouraged to report any incidents of sexual assault to law enforcement authorities.”

HELP TO HAITI: The U.N. Security Council accredited the deployment of a Kenyan-led multinational pressure in Haiti Monday night to assist the nation’s police forces finish a destabilizing gang violence disaster, The Miami Herald’s JACQUELINE CHARLES and MICHAEL WILNER report.

The U.N. intervention, which was supported by the U.S. and Haiti, will see a multinational safety assist mission help native police and officers within the embattled Caribbean nation as they search to regain management from gangs. Worsening gang violence has gripped the nation’s main cities, leading to widespread killings, kidnappings and acts of sexual violence, in addition to a significant exodus of Haitians from the nation.

The choice of Kenya because the chief of the pressure can also be seen as a win for the Biden administration, which was reluctant to launch one more U.S. intervention in Haiti and had courted Kenya to take the mission on.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This area is reserved for the highest U.S. and international officers, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the consultants and the individuals such as you who care about how the natsec sausage will get made. Aim your ideas and feedback at [email protected] and [email protected], and observe us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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‘SUCKERS’ AND ‘LOSERS’ AGAIN: JOHN KELLY, former chief of employees to DONALD TRUMP, confirmed the previous president’s placing feedback calling Marines who died at Belleau Wood “suckers” and people buried in Aisne-Marne American Cemetery “losers.”

“A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me,’” Kelly instructed CNN’s JAKE TAPPER in a statement Monday night, confirming The Atlantic’s explosive 2020 story.

He continued: “A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family — for all Gold Star families — on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.”

NatSec Daily reached out to every of the GOP candidates’ marketing campaign groups for remark, however didn’t obtain any responses.

NEW CONTRACTOR RULES: A trio of federal businesses that oversee authorities procurement coverage are proposing strict new guidelines aimed toward beefing up the baseline cybersecurity and incident reporting necessities of federal contractors, our pals at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.

The Biden administration first referred to as for the brand new mandates from the Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council in a May 2021 government order on cybersecurity. It gave the three businesses representing the FARC — the Defense Department, General Services Administration and NASA — just some months to provide their suggestions.

If codified, the foundations could be adopted as commonplace contractual necessities throughout federal businesses for unclassified techniques. The cyber hygiene guidelines would require that federal contractors submit plans for steady safety monitoring, adjust to CISA safety directives, and bear impartial safety audits and assessments on an annual foundation.

URGING FOREIGN SALES: A Wall Street analyst wrote to buyers that U.S. arms sale notices for fiscal 2023 topped historic ranges, sending up cheers at Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX — in that order, our pals at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency introduced a complete of $107.7 billion in potential international gross sales for the yr, ROMAN SCHWEIZER of TD Cowen wrote to buyers. That topped $74.8 billion in 2022, $87.5 billion in 2021, $83.6 billion in 2020, $67.9 billion in 2019 and $70.1 billion in 2018.

To be clear, these international army gross sales totals are for offers that had been introduced however might not but be accomplished, a course of that may take years or run aground. (*Cough* Harpoons for Taiwan. *Cough*.) Yet it’s nonetheless a barometer for demand and Washington’s willingness to fulfill it.

SCHUMER’S CHINA CODEL: Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is main a bipartisan group of senators on a visit to China, Japan and South Korea deliberate for subsequent week, Reuters’ DAVID SHEPARDSON reports.

Sen. MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho) is co-leading the tour — which can embody Louisiana Republican Sens. BILL CASSIDY and JOHN KENNEDY, MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) and JON OSSOFF (D-Ga.) — with the hope of securing a gathering with Chinese President XI JINPING.

The majority chief “will focus on the need for reciprocity in China for U.S. businesses that will level the playing field for American workers, as well as on maintaining U.S. leadership in advanced technologies for national security,” Schumer’s workplace stated in a press release.

THE COME DOWN: The Treasury Department sanctioned 28 people and entities for the “international proliferation of illicit drugs,” together with a China-based community it says is answerable for making and distributing large quantities of fentanyl, meth and chemical compounds to make MDMA.

“Today’s action … reflects how we will swiftly use all of our tools to counter the global threat posed by the illicit drug trade,” Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO stated in a press release at this time.

It’s the newest effort by the Biden administration to fight the movement of unlawful medicine, particularly fentanyl from China, which kills hundreds of Americans yearly and has more and more prompted stress between Washington and Beijing in recent times.

TRIO IN TROUBLE: Three Chinese vitality giants have been added to Ukraine’s record of companies which can be serving to bankroll Russia’s full-scale invasion, in a transfer Kyiv says may have repercussions for his or her work within the West, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

In a press release at this time, Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention confirmed that China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation had all been listed as “international sponsors of war.”

The three state-run corporations — China’s largest oil and gasoline companies — are actively implementing joint tasks alongside their Russian counterparts and assist fund Moscow’s army and arms industries “by paying significant taxes” to the state, officers wrote.

— Business protection and federal litigation agency Oberheiden P.C. introduced that former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO, former Director of National Intelligence JOHN RATCLIFFE and former Rep. TREY GOWDY (R-S.C.) have joined the corporate as of counsel.

— Spirit AeroSystems CEO TOM GENTILE resigned and PATRICK SHANAHAN, the previous Boeing government and Pentagon No. 2, was named as his interim substitute, the corporate introduced Monday.

— Austal USA named CHRIS ORLOWSKI as its vice chairman of engineering. He was Northrop Grumman’s director of engineering and manufacturing techniques and infrastructure.

— Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. JOHN TEICHERT is operating for Sen. BEN CARDIN’s (D-Md.) seat as a Republican. Cardin shouldn’t be operating for reelection in 2024 and can depart the Senate in January 2025.

— JON WOLFSTHAL is becoming a member of the Federation of American Scientists as director of world danger. He was a senior adviser to Global Zero.

— NEIL MCKIERNAN has joined the lobbying agency American Defense International as vice chairman for presidency affairs. He was most lately chief of employees to Rep. JOE COURTNEY (D-Conn.).

— IAN LOVETT and NIKITA NIKOLAIENKO, The Wall Street Journal: Inside Ukraine’s fight to retake Bakhmut: ‘The ground was covered in bodies’

— STEPHEN WALT, Foreign Policy: The Biden administration is addicted to partnerships

— DAVID REMNICK, The New Yorker: Should the West threaten the Putin regime over Ukraine?

— The Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: Running out of road: China Pathfinder 2023 launch

— The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: BUILD Act reauthorization and Development Finance Corporation oversight

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Integrating a force for twenty-first-century deterrence and warfighting

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: How doing justice to Ukraine can help win the battle for the future of nuclear security

— Georgetown University’s Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Transforming the Indo-Pacific order: The AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) wager

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft holds a digital dialogue, starting at 12 p.m.: Is U.S.-China conflict inevitable?”

— The University of Texas at Austin Strauss Center for International Security and Law and the William B. Clements Jr. Center for National Security, 2 p.m.: A discussion on the current state of international affairs with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and former Ambassador to NATO KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON

— The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Security on the Korean peninsula

— The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 4 p.m.: 50 Years Since the 1973 War

— The Brookings Institution, 4:30 p.m.: Does the U.S. need to seek to limit China’s economic growth in order to protect itself?

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who throws us beneath the bus daily.

We additionally thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who urges Emma to cooperate with us.